Match Info

PORTUGAL: TAÇA DE PORTUGAL - QUARTER-FINALS

Date: 8 February 2024, Thursday

Location: Estádio do Vizela (Caldas de Vizela)

Referee: Carvalho H. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	ESPN 4
Portugal	Sport TV
Ukraine	Sport 1


	Vizela		Benfica

	1	X	2
	13	6	1.22	Watch
	9.5	5.75	1.22	Watch
	12	6.5	1.22
	11	6.2	1.25
	13.96	6.37	1.23
	11	6	1.18
	11	6.25	1.25
	10	6	1.24
Avarage Now (Initially)	11.43 ↑ (7.13)	6.13 ↑ (4.71)	1.23 ↓ (1.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vizela
8.2%

Draw
15.3%

Benfica
76.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13%

19.7%

67.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

12.7%

19.2%

69.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vizela has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Benfica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Benfica's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vizela than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Benfica, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.3%	0%	95.7%

Vizela - Benfica Predictions

Users Predictions: Benfica will win (45 of 47 users predict this - 95.74%).
Confidence interval (95%): 89.97% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ruberto F. (G) 82. Costa Silva T. 5. Anderson Jesus 4. Jota Goncalves 6. Matheus Pereira 20. Samu (C) 28. Bruno Costa 75. Lokilo J. 29. Soro A. 10. Quina D. 9. Petrov S.	1. Trubin A. (G) 8. Aursnes F. 4. Antonio Silva 30. Otamendi N. (C) 3. Carreras A. 87. Neves J. 10. Kokcu O. 11. Di Maria A. 27. Rafa Silva 20. Joao Mario 9. Cabral A.
Substitutes
11. Ba-Sy A. 97. Buntic F. (G) 22. Busnic A. 25. Escoval R. 7. Jardel 19. Lebedenko O. 8. Mendez A. 90. Nascimento D. 23. Rashid O.	44. Araujo T. 6. Bah A. 7. David Neres 61. Florentino 47. Gouveia T. 36. Marcos Leonardo 5. Morato 24. Soares S. (G) 19. Tengstedt C.
Coaches
de la Barrera R.	Schmidt R.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Vizela won 0.

Vizela is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Benfica is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recently opponents have a series of home games.

In this match Benfica is indisputable favorite.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Vizela won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 4-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Vizela won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 2-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Vizela
Liga Portugal
04.02.24	Vizela - Vitoria Guimarães	0:1 ✺
28.01.24	Arouca - Vizela	5:0 ✺
18.01.24	Vizela - Sporting Lisbon	2:5 ✺
14.01.24	Vizela - Boavista	1:4 ✺
Taça de Portugal
10.01.24	Vizela - Arouca	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLLLW
- SL Benfica
Liga Portugal
04.02.24	Benfica - Gil Vicente	3:0 ✺
29.01.24	Estrela da Amadora - Benfica	1:4 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
24.01.24	Benfica - Estoril Praia	1:2 penalties ✺
Liga Portugal
19.01.24	Benfica - Boavista	2:0 ✺
14.01.24	Benfica - Rio Ave	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
16.09.23	Vizela - Benfica	1:2
25.02.23	Vizela - Benfica	0:2
02.09.22	Benfica - Vizela	2:1
11.03.22	Benfica - Vizela	1:1
24.10.21	Vizela - Benfica	0:1
Taça de Portugal
23.11.19	Vizela - Benfica	1:2
Portuguese League Cup
03.01.17	Benfica - Vizela	4:0

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