The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Santa Cruz Recife 19.9%
Draw 28%
Náutico Capibaribe 52.2%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
26.8%
29.8%
43.4%
Our Initial ML Estimation
26.3%
29.2%
44.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Santa Cruz Recife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Santa Cruz Recife's form might have worsened.
Náutico Capibaribe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Náutico Capibaribe's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santa Cruz Recife than the current prediction. (+6.4%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Santa Cruz Recife, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (-7.9%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Náutico Capibaribe, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Santa Cruz Recife - Náutico Capibaribe Predictions
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
AH +0.5 - Santa Cruz (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Santa Cruz (votes: 1 - 100%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
12. Rokenedy (G) 26. Alex Ruan 3. Eurico (C) 14. Israel 13. Matheus Vinicius 20. Patrick Allan 15. Pedro Favela 9. Quirino 18. Vitinho 8. Wagner Balotelli 10. Willian Junior
1. Muriel Becker (G) 10. Dodo 23. Igor Fernandes 29. Junior Todinho 25. Mateus Silva 9. Paulo Sergio 93. Reginaldo 41. Samuel 7. Vinicius (C) 8. Wenderson 6. Yuri
Substitutes
5. Andrey 1. Felipe Alves (G) 17. Gabriel Galhardo 25. Gabriel Souza (G) 22. Harley 4. Ianson 16. Matheus Castilho 2. Pedro Costa 19. Renato 6. Rodrigues 11. Vini Hora
2. Arnaldo 5. Auremir 98. Felipe Saraiva 55. Guruceaga G. (G) 13. Indio 11. Juninho 66. Leo Jance 27. Luiz Felipe 40. Ramon 31. Rosa G. 34. Samuel Otusanya 43. Wanderson
Coaches
Cortez F.
Helio dos Anjos
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
6', Mateus Silva ↓, Wanderson ↑,
18', 0 - 1, Paulo Sergio ⚽,
24', Samuel 🟨,
34', Muriel Becker ↓, Guruceaga G. ↑,
38', Quirino 🟨,
43', Wenderson 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Samuel ↓, Auremir ↑,
64', Israel 🟨,
66', Quirino ↓, Renato ↑,
73', Wenderson ↓, Luiz Felipe ↑,
73', Junior Todinho ↓, Juninho ↑,
73', Eurico 🟨,
76', Alex Ruan 🟨,
76', 🟨,
82', Matheus Vinicius 🟨,
85', Paulo Sergio (Penalty Awarded),
86', 🟨,
86', 🟨,
88', Vitinho ↓, Matheus Castilho ↑,
88', Patrick Allan ↓, Vini Hora ↑,
90+3', Vinicius 🟨,
90+3', Pedro Favela ↓, Gabriel Galhardo ↑,
Preview
First leg.
A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Pernambucano (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Pernambucano (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santa Cruz won 0.
Recent performances by Santa Cruz have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Náutico is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
Náutico may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, Náutico is the team to beat.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Santa Cruz won 4 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 20:28. (average 1:1.4).
Including home matches between the teams, Santa Cruz won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:15. (average 1.2:1.4).
Brazil
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Rokenedy (G) 
Guruceaga G. (G) 
Samuel Otusanya 
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