Match Info

MALTA: Premier League - Round 26

Date: 3 May 2024, Friday

Location: Centenary Stadium (Ta' Qali)


	Santa Lucia		Birkirkara

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.3	3.2
	1.95	3.5	3.4	Watch
	2.04	3.77	3.16
	1.8	3.6	3.6
	1.99	3.43	3.49
	1.9	3.65	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↓ (2.19)	3.54 ↑ (3.49)	3.36 ↑ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santa Lucia
47.1%

Draw
25.8%

Birkirkara
27.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.9%

26.4%

31.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.4%

26.1%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santa Lucia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Santa Lucia's performance.

Birkirkara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santa Lucia than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Santa Lucia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Birkirkara than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Santa Lucia - Birkirkara Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Santa Lucia will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Birkirkara will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Celio (G) 3. Ellul M. 6. Letherby D. 21. Moracci S. 18. Mrdja A. 8. Ojo T. 22. Oliveira C. 27. Piazza A. 17. Pisani J. (C) 7. Pisani S. 55. Xerri S.	16. Sylla A. (G) 7. Bravo 27. Coppola A. 30. Cross N. 77. Diakite 8. Mbong P. 25. Micallef N. 24. Pena E. 5. Pepe E. (C) 10. Zammit A. 11. Zammit K. II
Substitutes
15. Bradshaw A. 16. Formosa C. (G) 80. Gomes E. 11. Lucas Sena 10. Nagamatsu T. 4. Ogouvide A. 19. Tanti J. 29. Valletta J. 1. Vella D. (G) 20. Virano G. 14. Xuereb D.	23. Agius N. J. 99. Ciolacu A. 21. De Filippis M. 92. Delicata L. 70. Elouni O. 15. Fenech K. 22. Gambin M. 91. Maxuell Samurai 12. Sargent K. (G) 17. Shchepetkin N. 1. Zapytowski M. (G)
Coaches
Zinnari A.	Borg J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
30', 1 - 0, Moracci S. ⚽,
33', 1 - 1, Coppola A. ⚽,
38', Mbong P. ↓, Maxuell Samurai ↑,
41', 2 - 1, Pisani S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Zammit A. ↓, Ciolacu A. ↑,
52', Ojo T. 🟨,
56', Ojo T. ↓, Bradshaw A. ↑,
59', Cross N. ↓, Elouni O. ↑,
66', Moracci S. ↓, Xuereb D. ↑,
70', Diakite 🟨,
72', Ellul M. 🟨,
81', Oliveira C. ↓, Lucas Sena ↑,
81', Piazza A. ↓, Gomes E. ↑,
82', Bravo ↓, Fenech K. ↑,
82', Diakite ↓, Agius N. J. ↑,
86', 2 - 2, Fenech K. ⚽,

Preview

Teams from a mid-table will play this time (ranked 10 and 6).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Santa Lucia won 3.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Santa Lucia will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Santa Lucia won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 7-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Santa Lucia won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santa Lucia FC
Maltese Premier League
28.04.24	Santa Lucia - Gżira United	2:1 ✺
20.04.24	Hamrun Spartans - Santa Lucia	4:1 ✺
12.04.24	Santa Lucia - Marsaxlokk	0:3 ✺
07.04.24	Mosta - Santa Lucia	1:1 ✺
16.03.24	Santa Lucia - Valletta	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WLLTW
- Birkirkara FC
Maltese Premier League
28.04.24	Birkirkara - Sirens	2:2 ✺
20.04.24	Gżira United - Birkirkara	0:0 ✺
14.04.24	Birkirkara - Gudja United	2:0 ✺
07.04.24	Hamrun Spartans - Birkirkara	2:0 ✺
Maltese FA Trophy
30.03.24	Birkirkara - Hamrun Spartans	3:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 TTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Premier League
21.01.24	Birkirkara - Santa Lucia	1:2
28.01.23	Birkirkara - Santa Lucia	2:0
11.09.22	Santa Lucia - Birkirkara	0:4
27.02.22	Birkirkara - Santa Lucia	2:3
21.11.21	Santa Lucia - Birkirkara	2:0
10.01.21	Santa Lucia - Birkirkara	0:0
09.11.19	Santa Lucia - Birkirkara	0:2

Santa Lucia - Birkirkara: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide