Match Info

MALTA: Premier League - Round 25

Date: 28 April 2024, Sunday

Location: Tony Bezzina Stadium (Paola)


	Santa Lucia		Gżira United

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.4	2.1
	2.95	3.5	2.1
	2.94	3.67	2.15
	2.94	3.67	2.15
	3.04	3.39	2.19
	2.9	3.55	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.94 ↓ (3.37)	3.53 ↑ (3.21)	2.14 ↑ (2.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santa Lucia
31.2%

Draw
25.9%

Gżira United
42.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.4%

28.7%

43.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.9%

28.2%

44.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santa Lucia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Gżira United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santa Lucia than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gżira United than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Celio (G) 6. Letherby D. 18. Mrdja A. 10. Nagamatsu T. 22. Oliveira C. 33. Patrick 27. Piazza A. 17. Pisani J. (C) 7. Pisani S. 55. Xerri S. 14. Xuereb D.	30. Zarkov D. (G) 2. Carlos Chaba 21. Cassar Z. 7. Lubanzadio Aldama B. T. 11. Macula 9. Marcelo Dias 98. Mendonza J. 3. Mentz G. 8. Scerri Z. (C) 19. Spence K. C. 20. Zuniga R.
Substitutes
15. Bradshaw A. 3. Ellul M. 16. Formosa C. (G) 80. Gomes E. 11. Lucas Sena 9. Mensah G. 21. Moracci S. 8. Ojo T. 19. Tanti J. 29. Valletta J. 1. Vella D. (G)	80. Badawi J. (G) 74. Boadu D. 4. Borg A. 47. Borg B. 26. Cassara M. 23. Ewertton 13. Grech M. 15. Kabar H. 14. Mifsud D. 29. Pace D. 16. Riascos L.
Coaches
Zinnari A.	Cohen A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Oliveira C. ⚽,
32', Zuniga R. 🟨,
33', 2 - 0, Oliveira C. (Pen),
35', Mendonza J. ↓, Ewertton ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Zuniga R. ↓, Borg A. ↑,
55', Letherby D. 🟨,
56', Letherby D. ↓, Ojo T. ↑,
63', Cassar Z. ↓, Boadu D. ↑,
64', Oliveira C. ↓, Gomes E. ↑,
86', Scerri Z. 🟨,
88', Nagamatsu T. ↓, Mensah G. ↑,
88', Piazza A. ↓, Lucas Sena ↑,
89', 2 - 1, Boadu D. ⚽,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play in the exciting match (ranked 11 in the zone Relegation ~ Challenge League and 9).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Santa Lucia won 2.

Santa Lucia is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Gżira is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recently Gżira have a series of home games.

Gżira will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Santa Lucia won 3 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 11-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Santa Lucia won 0 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santa Lucia FC
Maltese Premier League
20.04.24	Hamrun Spartans - Santa Lucia	4:1 ✺
12.04.24	Santa Lucia - Marsaxlokk	0:3 ✺
07.04.24	Mosta - Santa Lucia	1:1 ✺
16.03.24	Santa Lucia - Valletta	2:0 ✺
10.03.24	Sliema Wanderers - Santa Lucia	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LLTWL
- Gżira United
Maltese Premier League
20.04.24	Gżira United - Birkirkara	0:0 ✺
13.04.24	Gżira United - Hamrun Spartans	0:1 ✺
06.04.24	Marsaxlokk - Gżira United	1:1 ✺
Maltese FA Trophy
30.03.24	Gżira United - Mġarr United	2:0 ✺
Maltese Premier League
17.03.24	Gżira United - Mosta	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 TLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Premier League
06.01.24	Gżira United - Santa Lucia	1:2
15.12.22	Santa Lucia - Gżira United	0:1
20.08.22	Gżira United - Santa Lucia	3:1
Maltese FA Trophy
18.04.22	Gżira United - Santa Lucia	0:1 ET
Maltese Premier League
18.12.21	Gżira United - Santa Lucia	2:2
22.08.21	Santa Lucia - Gżira United	1:1
28.11.20	Gżira United - Santa Lucia	2:2

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