Match Info

Liga 2 - Promotion Group - Round 8

Date: 6 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Nasca (Nazca)


	Santos		ADA Jaén

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.3	3.7
	1.86	3.36	3.68
	1.90	3.68	3.63	Watch
	1.85	3.32	3.87
	1.96	3.2	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↓ (1.9)	3.37 ↑ (3.06)	3.71 ↑ (3.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santos
48.4%

Draw
27%

ADA Jaén
24.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.1%

28.7%

25.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.8%

25.4%

28.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ADA Jaén has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santos than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Santos that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for ADA Jaén than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Santos - ADA Jaén Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
	1. Rojas S. (G)
	22. Acevedo G.
	13. Cano L.
	17. Crespo H.
	11. Cubas A.
	7. Duque L.
	37. Maciel E.
	9. Rodriguez F.
	44. Rossi E.
	18. Salinas T.
	3. Villalta M.
Substitutes
	10. Aponza S.
	32. Cassiano F.
	19. Labrin V.
	15. Lopez D.
	74. Lozada J. (G)
	23. Plasencia I.
	77. Rodriguez A.
	31. Temoche D.
	20. Valencia J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', Maciel E. 🟨,
19', 🟨,
28', Rodriguez F. ↓, Valencia J. ↑,
39', 0 - 1, Salinas T. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Cuneo O. ↓, Garcia C. ↑,
46', Cavero G. ↓, Condena A. ↑,
50', 1 - 1, Curiel M. ⚽,
62', 1 - 2, Salinas T. ⚽,
66', Cano L. 🟨,
69', 🟨,
70', 🟨,
74', Carranza T. ↓, Llanos A. ↑,
74', Colon S. ↓, Wesly ↑,
74', Falcon L. ↓, Toledo P. ↑,
82', Rossi E. 🟨,

Preview

Recent performances by Santos have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

ADA is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

ADA may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Santos is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Santos won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:5. (average 2.3:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, Santos won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santos de Nasca
Peruvian Liga 2
30.08.25	Unión Comercio - Santos	2:1 ✺
16.08.25	Comerciantes Belén - Santos	3:0 ✺
09.08.25	Santos - San Marcos	3:0 ✺
03.08.25	ADA Jaén - Santos	1:2 ✺
26.07.25	Santos - Unión Comercio	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LLWWL
- ADA Jaén
Peruvian Liga 2
30.08.25	ADA Jaén - Comerciantes Belén	2:2 ✺
24.08.25	San Marcos - ADA Jaén	1:0 ✺
10.08.25	Unión Comercio - ADA Jaén	2:0 ✺
03.08.25	ADA Jaén - Santos	1:2 ✺
26.07.25	Comerciantes Belén - ADA Jaén	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 TLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 2
03.08.25	ADA Jaén - Santos	1:2
07.09.24	Santos - ADA Jaén	1:2
11.08.24	ADA Jaén - Santos	2:4

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