Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 11

Date: 1 June 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Urbano Caldeira (Santos)

Referee: Lacerda D. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globo Internacional TV, Globoplay, Premiere, Rede Globo, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Peru	L1 Max
Usa	Fanatiz


	Santos		Botafogo RJ

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.25	2.9	Watch
	2.7	3.2	2.65
	2.65	3	2.85	Watch
	2.7	3.13	2.91
	2.68	3.04	2.87	Watch
	2.6	2.9	2.9
	2.68	3.04	2.83	Watch
	2.65	3	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.65 ↑ (2.23)	3.07 ↓ (3.22)	2.85 ↓ (3.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santos
35.8%

Draw
30.9%

Botafogo RJ
33.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.3%

29.3%

28.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.3%

31.4%

26.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Santos's form might have worsened.

Botafogo RJ has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santos than the current prediction. (+9.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Santos, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Botafogo RJ, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	41.7%	25%

Santos - Botafogo RJ Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Santos will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Botafogo will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Santos: 9.6% – 70.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Santos (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Santos (1.51) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Santos (votes: 4 - 80%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Gabriel Brazao (G) 33. Souza 3. Joao Basso 2. Ze Ivaldo 31. Escobar G. 8. Rincon T. 6. Ze Rafael 22. Barreal A. 32. Rollheiser B. 11. Guilherme 10. Neymar (C)	12. John Victor (G) 2. Vitinho 32. Jair 57. David Ricardo 13. Alex Telles 26. Gregore 17. Marlon Freitas (C) 7. Artur 10. Savarino J. 25. Allan 9. Rwan Cruz
Substitutes
36. Deivid Washington 21. Diego Pituca 49. Gabriel Bontempo 4. Gil 29. Godoy L. 1. Joao Paulo (G) 44. Joao Pedro Chermont 5. Joao Schmidt 79. Luca Meirelles 25. Luisao 41. Mateus Xavier 9. Tiquinho Soares	20. Barboza A. 5. Danilo Barbosa 33. Elias Manoel 39. Gonzalo Mastriani 18. Kaue Rodrigues 16. Nathan Fernandes 28. Newton 6. Patrick de Paula 4. Ponte M. 1. Raul Steffens (G) 23. Rodriguez S. 63. Serafim
Coaches
Xavier C.	Alves R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
37', Escobar G. 🟨,
45+4', Neymar 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', Rincon T. ↓, Diego Pituca ↑,
57', Alex Telles 🟨,
61', Rwan Cruz ↓, Nathan Fernandes ↑,
61', Allan ↓, Rodriguez S. ↑,
73', Savarino J. ↓, Gonzalo Mastriani ↑,
73', Alex Telles ↓, Ponte M. ↑,
73', Gonzalo Mastriani 🟨,
76', Neymar 🟨,
82', Rollheiser B. ↓, Gabriel Bontempo ↑,
82', Vitinho ↓, Elias Manoel ↑,
86', 0 - 1, Artur ⚽, Jair (A),
89', Ze Rafael ↓, Deivid Washington ↑,
89', Barreal A. ↓, Tiquinho Soares ↑,
89', Joao Basso ↓, Joao Schmidt ↑,
90', Ze Ivaldo 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santos won 2.

Recent form of Santos has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Botafogo is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Botafogo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Santos: Aderlan (Hamstring Injury) Joao Schmidt (Thigh Injury) Luan Peres (Yellow Cards) Soteldo Y. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Botafogo: Bastos (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Botafogo: David Ricardo (Thigh Injury) Matheus Martins (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Santos won 10 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 30:18. (average 1.5:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Santos won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 23:7. (average 2.3:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santos FC
Club Friendly
28.05.25	Santos - RB Leipzig	1:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.05.25	Vitória Salvador - Santos	0:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
22.05.25	CRB Maceio - Santos	1:0 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
18.05.25	Corinthians - Santos	1:0 ✺
12.05.25	Santos - Ceará	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LWLLT
- Botafogo RJ
Copa Libertadores
27.05.25	Botafogo RJ - Universidad de Chile	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
22.05.25	Capital CF Ltda - Botafogo RJ	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
18.05.25	Flamengo - Botafogo RJ	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.05.25	Botafogo RJ - Estudiantes La Plata	3:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.05.25	Botafogo RJ - Internacional RS	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
26.11.23	Botafogo RJ - Santos	1:1
23.07.23	Santos - Botafogo RJ	2:2
10.11.22	Botafogo RJ - Santos	3:0
20.07.22	Santos - Botafogo RJ	2:0
17.01.21	Santos - Botafogo RJ	2:1
20.09.20	Botafogo RJ - Santos	0:0
03.11.19	Santos - Botafogo RJ	4:1

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