Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 26

Date: 1 October 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Urbano Caldeira (Santos)

Referee: Zanovelli P. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Mexico	Fanatiz
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Premier Sports 1
Usa	Fanatiz


	Santos		Grêmio

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.6	5	Watch
	1.7	3.55	4.95
	1.74	3.67	5.43
	1.75	3.44	4.94	Watch
	1.79	3.72	4.92	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (2.2)	3.6 ↑ (3.2)	5.05 ↑ (3.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santos
54.7%

Draw
26.4%

Grêmio
18.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.8%

29.4%

27.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

30.3%

26.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Santos's performance.

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Grêmio might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santos than the current prediction. (-10.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Santos that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Grêmio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.1%	8.1%	10.8%

Santos - Grêmio Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Grêmio (2.09) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Santos will win (30 of 37 users predict this - 81.08%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.46% – 93.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Santos will win (18 of 23 users predict this - 78.26%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 25 Selected Experts predict this event. Santos (votes: 18 - 72%). Grêmio (votes: 4 - 16%). Tie (votes: 3 - 12%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Gabriel Brazao (G) 2. Mayke 23. Duarte A. 14. Luan Peres 31. Escobar G. 5. Joao Schmidt 6. Ze Rafael 22. Barreal A. 32. Rollheiser B. 11. Guilherme 19. Diaz L.	12. Gabriel Grando (G) 53. Gustavo Martins 19. Noriega E. 3. Wagner Leonardo 23. Marlon 17. Dodi 29. Arthur Melo 8. Edenilson (C) 7. Pavon C. 77. Andre Henrique 47. Alysson
Substitutes
15. Arao W. 21. Brahimi B. 17. Caballero G. 12. Diogenes (G) 98. Frias A. 20. Hyan 18. Igor Vinicius 8. Rincon T. 7. Robson Junior 33. Souza 16. Thaciano 9. Tiquinho Soares	80. Alex Santana 9. Amuzu F. 16. Aravena A. 15. Camilo Reijers 10. Cristaldo F. 37. Gabriel Mec 21. Jemerson 2. Joao Lucas 31. Jorge (G) 25. Lucas Esteves 4. Walter Kannemann
Coaches
Vojvoda J.	Mano Menezes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
17', Joao Schmidt 🟨,
37', Arthur Melo 🟨,
43', Mano Menezes 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Joao Schmidt ↓, Tiquinho Soares ↑,
51', Alysson 🟨,
56', 0 - 1, Edenilson ⚽, Pavon C. (A),
59', Edenilson ↓, Cristaldo F. ↑,
59', Pavon C. ↓, Amuzu F. ↑,
64', Arthur Melo ↓, Alex Santana ↑,
69', Barreal A. ↓, Rincon T. ↑,
71', Mayke ↓, Igor Vinicius ↑,
73', Escobar G. 🟨,
77', Igor Vinicius 🟨,
78', Alysson ↓, Aravena A. ↑,
79', Rollheiser B. ↓, Robson Junior ↑,
79', Andre Henrique ↓, Freitas dos Santos R. ↑,
82', Alex Santana 🟨,
89', Escobar G. ↓, Souza ↑,
89', 1 - 1, Diaz L. ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santos won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Grêmio may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Santos is the team to beat.

There will not play in Santos: Frias A. (Inactive) Gabriel Bontempo (Ankle Injury) Neymar (Thigh Injury) Victor Hugo (Injury)

There will not play in Grêmio: Braithwaite M. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Carlos Vinicius (Injury) Cuellar G. (Inactive) Fabian Balbuena (Ankle Injury) Joao Lucas (Muscle Injury) Joao Pedro (Muscle Injury) Monsalve M. (Shoulder Injury) Villasanti M. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Grêmio: Freitas dos Santos R. (Injury) Marcos Rocha (Injury) Rodrigo Ely (Knee Injury) Willian (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Santos won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 24:29. (average 1.2:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Santos won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:10. (average 1.3:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santos FC
Brazilian Serie A
28.09.25	Red Bull Bragantino - Santos	2:2 ✺
21.09.25	Santos - São Paulo	1:0 ✺
14.09.25	Atlético Mineiro - Santos	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	Santos - Fluminense	0:0 ✺
24.08.25	Bahia - Santos	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 TWTTL
- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Serie A
28.09.25	Grêmio - Vitória Salvador	3:1 ✺
24.09.25	Grêmio - Botafogo RJ	1:1 ✺
21.09.25	Internacional RS - Grêmio	2:3 ✺
13.09.25	Grêmio - Mirassol	0:1 ✺
31.08.25	Flamengo - Grêmio	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22 WTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
04.05.25	Grêmio - Santos	1:0
20.08.23	Santos - Grêmio	2:1
16.04.23	Grêmio - Santos	1:0
10.10.21	Santos - Grêmio	1:0
24.06.21	Grêmio - Santos	2:2
03.02.21	Grêmio - Santos	3:3
Copa Libertadores
16.12.20	Santos - Grêmio	4:1

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