Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 13

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Arena Fonte Nova (Salvador)

Referee: Abatti R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Sporty TV, Sporty TV App
Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Israel	Sport 4
Ukraine	Maincast Sport
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Usa	Fanatiz


	Bahia		Santos

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.9	5.25	Watch
	1.62	3.7	5.4
	1.65	3.95	5.91
	1.61	4.04	5.64	Watch
	1.6	3.7	5
	1.66	4.1	5.37	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.78)	3.9 ↑ (3.4)	5.43 ↑ (4.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bahia
58.4%

Draw
24.2%

Santos
17.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.5%

27%

21.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6%

26.4%

21.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Bahia's performance.

Santos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Bahia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santos than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Bahia - Santos Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Bahia (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Bahia will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.24% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Leo Vieira (G) 5. Nicolas Acevedo 3. Gabriel Xavier 21. Ramos S. 46. Luciano Juba (C) 15. Michel Araujo 8. Caio Alexandre 6. Jean Lucas 99. Olivera C. 12. Willian Jose 16. Erick Pulga	1. Diogenes (G) 12. Mayke 4. Lucas Verissimo (C) 26. Joao Ananias 31. Escobar G. 28. Oliva C. 5. Joao Schmidt 49. Gabriel Bontempo 11. Rony 32. Rollheiser B. 16. Thaciano
Substitutes
7. Ademir 14. Erick 27. Everaldo 10. Everton Ribeiro 2. Gilberto 31. Gomez R. 25. Iago Borduchi 4. Kanu 57. Kaue Junior 91. Neres dos Santos I. J. C. (G) 11. Rodrigo 23. Sanabria M.	22. Barreal A. 19. Diaz L. 98. Frias A. 79. Joao Lucio (G) 14. Luan Peres 47. Mateus Xavier 30. Miguelito 21. Moises 38. Rafael Gonzaga 8. Rincon T. 7. Robinho Jr.
Coaches
Mucke R.	Cuca

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
20', Erick Pulga 🟨,
22', 0 - 1, Rollheiser B. (Penalty Awarded),
45+4', 0 - 2, Rollheiser B. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Michel Araujo ↓, Everton Ribeiro ↑,
46', Gabriel Xavier ↓, Gilberto ↑,
54', Diogenes 🟨,
59', Ramos S. 🟨,
65', Thaciano ↓, Diaz L. ↑,
65', Rollheiser B. ↓, Miguelito ↑,
72', Caio Alexandre ↓, Erick ↑,
72', Miguelito 🟨,
73', Olivera C. ↓, Everaldo ↑,
76', 1 - 2, Luciano Juba ⚽,
80', Rony ↓, Moises ↑,
80', Gabriel Bontempo ↓, Rincon T. ↑,
82', Mayke 🟨,
83', 2 - 2, Willian Jose ⚽, Erick Pulga (A),
89', Escobar G. 🟨,
89', Joao Schmidt ↓, Luan Peres ↑,
90+2', Erick Pulga ↓, Ademir ↑,
90+6', Everton Ribeiro 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: ) and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Bahia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Santos has had a series of home games.

In this match, Bahia is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 17:25. (average 0.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Bahia won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:7. (average 1.4:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Bahia	29	12	10	7	43:36	7	46
8	Santos	29	11	9	9	45:43	2	42

Last Results with these Odds

Bahia - the odds 1.78 are the expected chance of winning is 51.52%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Santos - the odds 4.27 are the expected chance of winning is 21.5%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Bahia
Copa do Brasil
22.04.26	Bahia - Remo	1:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
19.04.26	Flamengo - Bahia	2:0 ✺
11.04.26	Mirassol - Bahia	1:2 ✺
05.04.26	Bahia - Palmeiras	1:2 ✺
01.04.26	Bahia - Athletico Paranaense	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LLWLW
- Santos FC
Copa do Brasil
22.04.26	Santos - Coritiba	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
19.04.26	Santos - Fluminense	2:3 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
14.04.26	Santos - Deportivo Recoleta	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.04.26	Santos - Atlético Mineiro	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.04.26	Deportivo Cuenca - Santos	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 TLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
24.08.25	Bahia - Santos	2:0
06.04.25	Santos - Bahia	2:2
18.09.23	Bahia - Santos	1:2
Copa do Brasil
31.05.23	Bahia - Santos	2:1 penalties
17.05.23	Santos - Bahia	0:0
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.23	Santos - Bahia	3:0
11.09.21	Santos - Bahia	0:0

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