Match Info

BRAZIL: PAULISTA - PLAY OFFS - QUARTER-FINALS

Date: 17 March 2024, Sunday

Location: Estadio Urbano Caldeira (Santos)

Referee: Claus R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Santos		Portuguesa

	1	X	2
	1.44	3.8	8	Watch
	1.44	4.2	7.25
	1.45	4.2	7	Watch
	1.42	4.43	8.36
	1.42	4.43	8.37
	1.36	4	8
	1.41	4.2	7.55
	1.42	4	6.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↑ (1.37)	4.16 ↑ (3.8)	7.67 ↓ (8.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santos
65.5%

Draw
22.4%

Portuguesa
12.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.4%

23.6%

11.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.2%

22.6%

10.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Portuguesa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santos than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portuguesa than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Santos - Portuguesa Predictions

Users Predictions: Santos will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Joao Paulo (G) 4. Hayner 2. Gil 6. Joaquim 3. Felipe Jonatan 5. Joao Schmidt 8. Diego Pituca (C) 7. Romulo Otero 10. Cazares 11. Guilherme 9. Furch J.	1. Thomazella (G) 2. Gustavo Talles 4. Robson 3. Quintana Y. 6. Eduardo Diniz 7. Taua Antunes 5. Patrick 8. Ricardinho 19. Maceio 9. Henrique Dourado 10. Giovanni Augusto (C)
Substitutes
15. Chermont J. P. 12. Diogenes (G) 17. Dodo 21. Gabriel Brazao (G) 19. Giuliano 14. Jair Paula 13. Messias 20. Morelos A. 16. Nonato 22. Pedrinho 18. Rincon T. 23. Weslley Patati	14. da Silva Ferreira P. H. 23. Denis 13. Douglas Borel 18. Eduardo 21. Felipe Marques 24. Leandro P. B. 20. Luccas Paraizo 15. Marco Antonio 16. Marquinhos Pedroso 12. Rafael Pascoal (G) 11. Victor Andrade 17. Ze Ricardo
Coaches
Fabio Carille	Pintado

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Robson ↓, Marco Antonio ↑,
59', Cazares ↓, Giuliano ↑,
59', Joaquim ↓, Jair Paula ↑,
64', Henrique Dourado 🟨,
64', Henrique Dourado ↓, Victor Andrade ↑,
73', Romulo Otero 🟥,
80', Furch J. ↓, Weslley Patati ↑,
80', Joao Schmidt ↓, Rincon T. ↑,
80', Hayner ↓, Chermont J. P. ↑,
83', Taua Antunes ↓, Ze Ricardo ↑,
84', Giovanni Augusto ↓, Luccas Paraizo ↑,
88', Chermont J. P. 🟨,
88', Maceio ↓, Felipe Marques ↑,
90+1', Ricardinho 🟨,
Penalties (4 - 2)
1, Eduardo Diniz (Pen),
1, Giuliano (Pen),
2, Felipe Marques (Pen),
2, Guilherme (Pen),
3, Quintana Y. (Pen),
3, Rincon T. (Pen),
4, Luccas Paraizo (Pen),
4, Jair Paula (Pen),

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Santos won 3.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Portuguesa could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Santos is absolute favorite.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Santos won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 12-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Santos won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santos FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
09.03.24	Santos - Internacional de Limeira	3:2 ✺
03.03.24	Red Bull Bragantino - Santos	1:0 ✺
25.02.24	Santos - São Bernardo	2:1 ✺
18.02.24	Santos - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:2 ✺
14.02.24	São Paulo - Santos	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WLWLW
- Portuguesa SP
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
10.03.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - Portuguesa	2:0 ✺
02.03.24	Portuguesa - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
28.02.24	Portuguesa - Palmeiras	0:2 ✺
25.02.24	Botafogo SP - Portuguesa	2:1 ✺
18.02.24	Portuguesa - Guarani	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
19.02.23	Santos - Portuguesa	4:0
22.02.15	Portuguesa - Santos	1:3
Brazilian Serie A
06.10.13	Portuguesa - Santos	3:0
13.07.13	Santos - Portuguesa	4:1
22.09.12	Santos - Portuguesa	1:3
01.07.12	Portuguesa - Santos	0:0

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