Match Info

USL Cup

Date: 11 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Premier Sports Campus (Lakewood Ranch, FL)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	fubo Sports Network
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Sarasota Paradise		Miami

	1	X	2
				Watch
	4.10	3.60	1.66
	3.45	3.50	1.87
	4.51	4.17	1.67
	17.35	10.05	1.09	Watch
	3.30	3.40	1.95
	4.17	3.62	1.71	Watch
	4.00	3.55	1.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.84 ↑ (3.92)	4.56 ↑ (3.84)	1.67 ↓ (1.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sarasota Paradise
17.3%

Draw
22.2%

Miami
60.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23%

23.5%

53.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.4%

22.9%

55.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sarasota Paradise has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sarasota Paradise's form might have worsened.

Miami has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Miami's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sarasota Paradise than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sarasota Paradise, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Miami than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Miami, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Sarasota Paradise - Miami Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Amedeka R. (G) 14. Pettersen J. 4. Watters D. (C) 3. Valentine R. 2. Burlew R. 7. Bryant E. 51. Kend A. 18. Krueger B. 27. O'Dwyer C. 20. Tainio M. 19. McLaughlin G.	1. Room E. (C) 14. Rogers A. 13. Knutson D. 6. Tulu 16. Diaz G. 5. Tori R. 21. Milesi A. 7. Tunbridge M. 9. Sonora J. 26. Rocha A. 10. Locadia J.
Substitutes
9. Bender J. 50. Brulinski D. 16. Rodriguez A. 46. Roed S. 52. Sanchez K. 5. Sogaard A. 6. Stretch C. 1. Sutton A. (G) 32. Terzaghi E.	25. Blanco C. E. (G) 4. Calfo A. 34. Celdran T. 22. Da Costa R. 39. Garcia S. 37. Mello D. 23. Musto T. 27. Ndongo M. 8. Romero M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
16', Valentine R. 🟨,
16', 0 - 1, Tunbridge M. (Penalty Awarded),
18', Rogers A. ↓, Calfo A. ↑,
28', 0 - 2, Diaz G. ⚽,
37', 0 - 3, Rocha A. ⚽, Milesi A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Burlew R. ↓, Stretch C. ↑,
46', Tainio M. ↓, Bender J. ↑,
59', Bryant E. ↓, Roed S. ↑,
59', 0 - 4, Locadia J. ⚽, Rocha A. (A),
63', 0 - 5, Knutson D. ⚽,
68', Locadia J. ↓, Ndongo M. ↑,
68', Tunbridge M. ↓, Da Costa R. ↑,
68', Valentine R. ↓, Sogaard A. ↑,
77', Kend A. ↓, Terzaghi E. ↑,
86', Rocha A. ↓, Garcia S. ↑,
86', Diaz G. ↓, Romero M. ↑,
88', Romero M. 🟨,

Preview

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Miami may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Sarasota Paradise has had a series of away games.

In this match, Miami is the team to beat.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sarasota Paradise
USL League One
08.07.26	Greenville Triumph - Sarasota Paradise	0:0 ✺
03.07.26	Richmond Kickers - Sarasota Paradise	0:0 ✺
20.06.26	Corpus Christi - Sarasota Paradise	4:1 ✺
13.06.26	Sarasota Paradise - Union Omaha	2:0 ✺
10.06.26	AV Alta - Sarasota Paradise	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 TTLWL
- Miami FC
USL Championship
05.07.26	Miami - Birmingham Legion	1:1 ✺
24.06.26	Miami - Orange County SC	2:4 ✺
13.06.26	Oakland Roots - Miami	0:0 ✺
30.05.26	Pittsburgh Riverhounds - Miami	2:0 ✺
23.05.26	Miami - Louisville City	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 TLTLW

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