Match Info

ARGENTINA: Torneo Federal - Promotion - Play Offs - Final

Date: 1 December 2024, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


South-america	DGO Latin America
World	DirecTV Sports


	Sarmiento de La Banda		Villa Mitre

	1	X	2
	1.49	3.4	6.75
	1.45	3.55	7.8
	1.48	3.3	9.78
				Watch
	1.44	3.5	7.5
	1.48	3.48	7.41
	1.45	3.55	7.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↑ (1.34)	3.46 ↓ (4)	7.84 ↓ (9.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sarmiento de La Banda
62.1%

Draw
26.3%

Villa Mitre
11.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68%

22.8%

9.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.5%

17.9%

11.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sarmiento de La Banda has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sarmiento de La Banda's form might have worsened.

Villa Mitre has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sarmiento de La Banda than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sarmiento de La Banda that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Villa Mitre than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Sarmiento de La Banda - Villa Mitre Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
26', Jara G. 🟥,
30', 1 - 0, Herrera E. R. ⚽,
45+1', Manchafico V. 🟥,
45+5', 2 - 0, Herrera E. R. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
57', 3 - 0, Chamorro R. ⚽,
61', 3 - 1, Jeldres S. (Pen),
79', Garcia F. 🟥,

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sarmiento de La Banda
Argentinian Torneo Federal
24.11.24	Villa Mitre - Sarmiento de La Banda	1:0 ✺
17.11.24	Sarmiento de La Banda - Germinal	2:1 ✺
10.11.24	Germinal - Sarmiento de La Banda	0:1 ✺
03.11.24	Sarmiento de La Banda - Olimpo Bahia Blanca	1:1 ✺
26.10.24	Olimpo Bahia Blanca - Sarmiento de La Banda	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LWWTT
- Club Villa Mitre
Argentinian Torneo Federal
24.11.24	Villa Mitre - Sarmiento de La Banda	1:0 ✺
17.11.24	Santamarina de Tandil - Villa Mitre	1:1 ✺
10.11.24	Villa Mitre - Santamarina de Tandil	1:0 ✺
03.11.24	Villa Mitre - Argentino Monte Maíz	2:1 ✺
27.10.24	Argentino Monte Maíz - Villa Mitre	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Torneo Federal
24.11.24	Villa Mitre - Sarmiento de La Banda	1:0

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