Match Info

Eliteserien - Round 20

Date: 6 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Sarpsborg Stadion (Sarpsborg)

Referee: Grotta M. (Nor)

Where to Watch on TV:


Norway	TV2 Play
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Sarpsborg 08		Vålerenga

	1	X	2
	1.85	4.00	3.50	Watch
	1.88	4.00	3.40
	1.91	3.95	3.40
	1.94	4.30	3.62
	1.93	4.18	3.38	Watch
	1.87	4.25	3.65
	1.97	4.09	3.34	Watch
	1.80	3.85	3.40
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↓ (2.07)	4.08 ↑ (3.77)	3.46 ↑ (3.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sarpsborg 08
49.7%

Draw
23.1%

Vålerenga
27.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.9%

24.7%

30.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.9%

23%

32.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sarpsborg 08 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Vålerenga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sarpsborg 08 than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sarpsborg 08 that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vålerenga than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Vålerenga could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
53.8%	23.1%	23.1%

Sarpsborg 08 - Vålerenga Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Sarpsborg will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%). Vålerenga will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sarpsborg: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Sarpsborg (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.25 - over (1.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Sarpsborg (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Sarpsborg (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
87. Oy L. (G) 12. Niyukuri C. 4. Utvik B. (C) 2. Lode M. 21. Hiim A. 22. Halvorsen V. E. 8. Christiansen S. 6. Sher A. 77. Skarsem O. 11. Karlsbakk D. 15. Opoku M.	1. Hedvall O. (G) 3. Sjatil H. 4. Olsen A. 55. Jarl S. 2. Finnsson K. 15. Holm O. T. 26. Gjengaar D. 10. Lange C. 77. Haren L. 28. Westergaard M. 11. Zahid G. (C)
Substitutes
7. Camil Mmaee 18. Gueye B. 5. Hoyland L. 1. Larsen J. (G) 33. Nibe A. 20. Reinhardsen P. 10. Sorli S. 32. Wichne E. 17. Williams N.	6. Hedenstad V. 49. Jatta A. 13. Lonning S. A. A. (G) 37. Nasberg I. 9. Rajkovic G. 90. Saeter O. 24. Strand P. 5. Tshiembe K.
Coaches
Sel E.	Moesgaard J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', 1 - 0, Niyukuri C. ⚽, Halvorsen V. E. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
63', Opoku M. ↓, Sorli S. ↑,
64', Zahid G. ↓, Strand P. ↑,
69', Gjengaar D. ↓, Saeter O. ↑,
69', Holm O. T. ↓, Rajkovic G. ↑,
69', Niyukuri C. ↓, Reinhardsen P. ↑,
70', Halvorsen V. E. ↓, Nibe A. ↑,
80', Westergaard M. 🟨,
81', 2 - 0, Sorli S. ⚽,
84', 2 - 1, Strand P. ⚽,
88', Skarsem O. ↓, Wichne E. ↑,
88', Lange C. ↓, Tshiembe K. ↑,
90+2', 2 - 2, Rajkovic G. ⚽,
90+4', Reinhardsen P. 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 9 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sarpsborg won 0.

Sarpsborg has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Vålerenga is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Sarpsborg might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Sarpsborg: Carstensen F. (Injury) Rosted S. (Ankle Injury) Svenningsen Gronn M. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Vålerenga: Ambina F. (Muscle Injury) Grundetjern M. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Vålerenga: Sjoeng M. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sarpsborg won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 29:34. (average 1.5:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Sarpsborg won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:6. (average 1.8:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Sarpsborg 08	21	6	7	8	24:29	-5	25
12	Valerenga	21	6	5	10	34:43	-9	23

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sarpsborg 08
Norwegian Eliteserien
30.08.26	Tromsø - Sarpsborg 08	0:0 ✺
16.08.26	Sarpsborg 08 - Sandefjord	1:2 ✺
08.08.26	Viking Stavanger - Sarpsborg 08	2:1 ✺
02.08.26	Molde - Sarpsborg 08	3:3 ✺
26.07.26	Sarpsborg 08 - Hamarkameratene	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 TLLTW
- Vålerenga Fotball
Norwegian Eliteserien
30.08.26	Vålerenga - Molde	3:4 ✺
16.08.26	Aalesunds - Vålerenga	5:5 ✺
08.08.26	Vålerenga - Bodø Glimt	1:2 ✺
31.07.26	Vålerenga - Hamarkameratene	0:3 ✺
26.07.26	Brann - Vålerenga	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Norwegian Eliteserien
16.05.26	Vålerenga - Sarpsborg 08	3:2
17.08.25	Vålerenga - Sarpsborg 08	4:0
06.04.25	Sarpsborg 08 - Vålerenga	1:1
Club Friendly
01.02.25	Vålerenga - Sarpsborg 08	1:0
09.03.24	Vålerenga - Sarpsborg 08	5:3
Norwegian Eliteserien
05.11.23	Sarpsborg 08 - Vålerenga	3:2
16.04.23	Vålerenga - Sarpsborg 08	0:2

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