Match Info

Serie D - Group D - Round 20

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday


	Sasso Marconi		Pistoiese

	1	X	2
	5.15	3.5	1.58
	5.5	3.54	1.59	Watch
	5.5	3.2	1.57
	5.85	3.45	1.56
	5.5	3.5	1.58
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.5 ↑ (4.1)	3.44 ↓ (3.58)	1.58 ↓ (1.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sasso Marconi
16.4%

Draw
26.3%

Pistoiese
57.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.2%

25.4%

52.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.9%

25.1%

53%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sasso Marconi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sasso Marconi's form might have worsened.

Pistoiese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sasso Marconi than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sasso Marconi, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pistoiese than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Sasso Marconi - Pistoiese Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
12', 0 - 1, Russo F. ⚽,
39', 0 - 2, Russo F. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
47', 0 - 3, ⚽,
80', 0 - 4, ⚽,
85', 1 - 4, ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 13 in the zone Serie D ~ Group D (Play Out: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group D (Play Offs: )).

In recent matches, Sasso Marconi has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Pistoiese is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Pistoiese may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Pistoiese is the team to beat.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Sasso Marconi won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:7. (average 1:2.3).

Including home match between the teams, Sasso Marconi won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Pistoiese	6	6	0	0	17:1	16	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ASD Sasso Marconi 1924
Italian Serie D - Group D
11.01.26	SantAngelo - Sasso Marconi	0:0 ✺
04.01.26	Sasso Marconi - Sangiuliano City Nova	3:1 ✺
21.12.25	Sasso Marconi - Progresso	2:3 ✺
14.12.25	Imolese - Sasso Marconi	1:3 ✺
07.12.25	Rovato Vertovese - Sasso Marconi	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 TWLWL
- US Pistoiese 1921
Italian Serie D - Group D
11.01.26	Pistoiese - Rovato Vertovese	2:0 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie D
07.01.26	Club Milano - Pistoiese	1:2 ✺
Italian Serie D - Group D
04.01.26	Imolese - Pistoiese	0:1 ✺
21.12.25	Cittadella Vis Modena - Pistoiese	0:0 ✺
14.12.25	Pistoiese - Desenzano Calvina	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group D
20.09.25	Pistoiese - Sasso Marconi	3:0
02.03.25	Pistoiese - Sasso Marconi	3:1
27.10.24	Sasso Marconi - Pistoiese	2:1

Sasso Marconi - Pistoiese: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide