Match Info

National League - Round 14

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Attis Arena (Scunthorpe)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Scunthorpe United		Carlisle United

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.5	2.75
	2.45	3.3	2.4
	2.52	3.4	2.52
	2.54	3.61	2.63
	25.00	5.97	1.14	Watch
	2.54	3.4	2.5	Watch
	2.45	3.3	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.69 ↑ (2.87)	3.78 ↑ (3.45)	2.34 ↑ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Scunthorpe United
20.3%

Draw
30.5%

Carlisle United
49.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.2%

26.8%

41%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.8%

25.7%

42.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Scunthorpe United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Scunthorpe United's form might have worsened.

Carlisle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Carlisle United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Scunthorpe United than the current prediction. (+10.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Scunthorpe United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Carlisle United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Scunthorpe United - Carlisle United Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Carlisle (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Carlisle (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Watson R. (G) 21. Starbuck J. 6. Boyce A. (C) 5. Evans W. 33. Denton T. 8. Beestin A. 17. Ewing O. 25. Westbrooke Z. 22. Dawson J. 10. Roberts C. 16. Sellars-Fleming T.	1. Breeze G. (G) 2. Davies A. 3. Harper C. 5. Feeney M. (C) 6. Hayden A. 18. Ellis J. 16. Wearne S. 20. Gilliead A. 11. Luamba J. 9. Kelly G. 10. Linney R.
Substitutes
4. Belehouan J. 23. Chadwick B. 3. Horton B. 7. Howe D. 20. Scales K. 14. Ubaezuonu C. 9. Whitehall D.	7. Ajiboye D. 29. Armstrong L. 24. Grant J. 25. Lewis H. (G) 15. Murray S. 8. Whelan C. 22. Williams J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
20', 0 - 1, Hayden A. ⚽, Davies A. (A),
23', Wearne S. 🟨,
25', Linney R. 🟨,
27', Gilliead A. 🟨,
29', Boyce A. 🟨,
37', Harper C. 🟨,
40', Boyce A. 🟥,
42', Dawson J. ↓, Belehouan J. ↑,
45+5', Evans W. 🟨,
45+9', Luamba J. ↓, Grant J. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Sellars-Fleming T. ↓, Whitehall D. ↑,
53', Westbrooke Z. 🟨,
76', Westbrooke Z. ↓, Howe D. ↑,
77', Gilliead A. ↓, Armstrong L. ↑,
78', Linney R. ↓, Williams J. ↑,
84', Beestin A. 🟨,
85', Denton T. 🟨,
90+4', Wearne S. ↓, Whelan C. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ National League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ National League (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Scunthorpe won 1.

Scunthorpe is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Carlisle has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Scunthorpe won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:8. (average 0.9:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Scunthorpe won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 1:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Scunthorpe United
English National League
01.10.25	York City - Scunthorpe United	1:3 ✺
27.09.25	Southend United - Scunthorpe United	0:2 ✺
24.09.25	Scunthorpe United - Boreham Wood	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Scunthorpe United - Truro City	4:0 ✺
English National League Cup
16.09.25	Scunthorpe United - Leeds United U21	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20 WWTWL
- Carlisle United
English National League
01.10.25	Carlisle United - Hartlepool United	3:1 ✺
27.09.25	Carlisle United - Rochdale	0:2 ✺
23.09.25	York City - Carlisle United	5:0 ✺
20.09.25	Altrincham - Carlisle United	1:2 ✺
13.09.25	Carlisle United - Aldershot Town	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
01.01.22	Scunthorpe United - Carlisle United	0:1
18.09.21	Carlisle United - Scunthorpe United	2:2
06.04.21	Carlisle United - Scunthorpe United	2:0
26.09.20	Scunthorpe United - Carlisle United	1:0
31.08.19	Scunthorpe United - Carlisle United	0:1
English League One
12.02.13	Scunthorpe United - Carlisle United	3:1
26.01.13	Carlisle United - Scunthorpe United	1:1

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