Match Info

USA: US Open Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 8 May 2024, Wednesday

Location: Lumen Field (Seattle, WA)


	Seattle Sounders		Louisville City

	1	X	2
	1.62	4	5	Watch
	1.57	3.75	4.75
	1.6	4	5
	1.61	3.92	4.88
	1.62	3.92	4.88
	1.5	3.8	5
	1.6	4.05	5.2	Watch
	1.6	3.95	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↑ (1.38)	3.92 ↓ (4.38)	4.96 ↓ (6.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Seattle Sounders
58%

Draw
23.5%

Louisville City
18.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.5%

20.6%

13.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.5%

20.6%

13.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Seattle Sounders has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Seattle Sounders's form might have worsened.

Louisville City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Seattle Sounders than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Seattle Sounders, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Louisville City than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Seattle Sounders - Louisville City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Thomas A. (G) 16. Roldan A. (C) 15. Bell J. 39. Hawkins S. 33. Baker C. 8. Atencio J. 75. Leyva D. 99. Teves D. 14. Rothrock P. 17. Musovski D. 93. Minoungou G.	12. Faundez D. (G) 4. Totsch S. 6. Charpie W. 32. Adams K. (C) 2. McFadden A. 17. Davila T. 23. Wynder E. 3. Morris J. 16. Perez A. 7. Serrano R. 14. Harris W.
Substitutes
37. Brunell S. 29. Castro J. (G) 23. Chu L. 95. De Rosario O. 85. Kalani K. 77. Kitahara S. 35. Lopez A.	13. Dia A. 20. Gleadle S. 21. Gonzalez J. 18. Las D. (G) 11. McCabe N. 5. Ordonez A. 25. Wilson J.
Coaches
Schmetzer B.	Cruz D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
41', 1 - 0, Rothrock P. ⚽, Minoungou G. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Serrano R. ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,
61', Charpie W. 🟨,
63', 2 - 0, Musovski D. ⚽, Leyva D. (A),
67', 2 - 1, Totsch S. (Pen),
77', Morris J. ↓, Dia A. ↑,
77', McFadden A. ↓, Wilson J. ↑,
78', Dia A. 🟨,
81', Rothrock P. ↓, Kalani K. ↑,
86', Teves D. ↓, Brunell S. ↑,
87', Atencio J. ↓, Kitahara S. ↑,
89', 2 - 2, Gonzalez J. ⚽,
90', Adams K. 🟨,
Extra Time (0 - 0)
91', Harris W. ↓, Gleadle S. ↑,
91', Roldan A. ↓, Chu L. ↑,
91', Bell J. ↓, Lopez A. ↑,
104', Perez A. ↓, McCabe N. ↑,
112', Charpie W. ↓, Ordonez A. ↑,
116', Minoungou G. ↓, De Rosario O. ↑,
Penalties (5 - 4)
1, Totsch S. (Pen),
1, Musovski D. (Pen),
2, Wynder E. (Pen),
2, Leyva D. (Pen),
3, Ordonez A. (Pen),
3, Lopez A. (Pen),
4, Davila T. (Pen),
4, Chu L. (Pen),
5, McCabe N. (Pen),
5, Brunell S. (Pen),
6, Gleadle S. (Pen),
6, De Rosario O. (Pen),
7, Wilson J. (Pen),
7, Kalani K. (Pen),
8, Adams K. (Pen),
8, Thomas A. (Pen),

Preview

Recent matches Seattle is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Louisville City is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Louisville City could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Seattle is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Seattle Sounders FC
MLS
05.05.24	Seattle Sounders - Los Angeles Galaxy	0:0 ✺
30.04.24	Philadelphia Union - Seattle Sounders	2:3 ✺
27.04.24	DC United - Seattle Sounders	2:1 ✺
20.04.24	Seattle Sounders - Vancouver Whitecaps	0:2 ✺
13.04.24	FC Dallas - Seattle Sounders	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TWLLT
- Louisville City FC
USL Championship
27.04.24	Louisville City - Hartford Athletic	6:0 ✺
20.04.24	Loudoun United - Louisville City	0:1 ✺
US Open Cup
16.04.24	Louisville City - Greenville Triumph	3:1 ✺
USL Championship
09.04.24	Charleston Battery - Louisville City	3:2 ✺
06.04.24	Louisville City - Indy Eleven	5:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WWWLW

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