Match Info

USA: US Open Cup - 1/32-finals

Date: 16 April 2024, Tuesday

Location: Lynn Family Stadium (Louisville, KY)


	Louisville City		Greenville Triumph

	1	X	2
	1.53	4	5	Watch
	1.52	4	4.75	Watch
	1.55	4.1	5.25
	1.55	4.11	5.25
	1.44	4.2	5
	1.56	4.3	5.24	Watch
	1.55	4.2	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.54)	4.13 ↑ (4.03)	5.07 ↓ (5.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Louisville City
59.8%

Draw
22.1%

Greenville Triumph
18%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.3%

22.7%

18%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.5%

21.9%

17.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Louisville City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

The chances for Greenville Triumph have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Louisville City than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Greenville Triumph than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Louisville City - Greenville Triumph Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Faundez D. (G) 4. Totsch S. 5. Ordonez A. 32. Adams K. (C) 25. Wilson J. 11. McCabe N. 23. Wynder E. 13. Dia A. 16. Perez A. 14. Harris W. 7. Serrano R.	1. Rankenburg G. (G) 12. Lee E. 4. Smith J. 3. Polak T. 22. Shultz N. 6. Anguiano C. 8. Herrera C. 16. Corvino P. 7. Zakowski B. 25. Castro L. 9. MacKinnon L.
Substitutes
6. Charpie W. 27. Davila E. 20. Gleadle S. 21. Gonzalez J. 22. Mares D. 2. McFadden A. 30. Troutman R. (G)	20. Anderson H. 5. Fricke B. 19. Gabo H. 23. Garner C. (G) 15. Hald O. 17. Scarlett Z. 2. Wu D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Totsch S. ⚽, McCabe N. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
49', 2 - 0, Harris W. ⚽, Wilson J. (A),
50', Harris W. 🟨,
60', Zakowski B. 🟨,
69', Anguiano C. ↓, Anderson H. ↑,
70', MacKinnon L. ↓, Scarlett Z. ↑,
70', Herrera C. 🟨,
71', Wynder E. ↓, Mares D. ↑,
72', McCabe N. ↓, Davila E. ↑,
73', Castro L. 🟨,
75', Faundez D. ↓, Troutman R. ↑,
76', Polak T. ↓, Hald O. ↑,
81', Corvino P. ↓, Wu D. ↑,
87', Perez A. ↓, Gleadle S. ↑,
87', Harris W. ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,
89', Dia A. 🟨,
90+3', 2 - 1, Anderson H. ⚽, Zakowski B. (A),
90+7', 3 - 1, Gonzalez J. ⚽, Gleadle S. (A),

Preview

Right away both teams are in a satisfying form.

Greenville could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Louisville City is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Louisville City to win the game is with odds 1.53.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Louisville City FC
USL Championship
09.04.24	Charleston Battery - Louisville City	3:2 ✺
06.04.24	Louisville City - Indy Eleven	5:3 ✺
30.03.24	Louisville City - Birmingham Legion	5:0 ✺
23.03.24	Louisville City - Pittsburgh Riverhounds	3:1 ✺
16.03.24	El Paso Locomotive - Louisville City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 LWWWW
- Greenville Triumph
USL League One
12.04.24	Charlotte Independence - Greenville Triumph	1:0 ✺
06.04.24	Greenville Triumph - Northern Colorado Hailstorm	3:1 ✺
US Open Cup
03.04.24	One Knoxville - Greenville Triumph	2:3 ET ✺
USL League One
29.03.24	Lexington - Greenville Triumph	2:3 ✺
23.03.24	Greenville Triumph - Forward Madison	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 LWWWT

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