Match Info

MLS

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Lumen Field (Seattle, WA)

Referee: Villarreal A. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	MLS Season Pass, SiriusXM FC
World	Apple TV International


	Seattle Sounders		San Diego

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.5	5	Watch
	1.58	4.45	4.95	Watch
	1.62	4.66	5.21
	1.57	4.55	5.06	Watch
	1.53	4.2	4.8
	1.6	4.58	5.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↓ (1.75)	4.49 ↑ (3.96)	5.05 ↑ (4.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Seattle Sounders
60.2%

Draw
21.1%

San Diego
18.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.1%

23.9%

22%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.8%

23.6%

21.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Seattle Sounders has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Seattle Sounders's performance.

San Diego has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Seattle Sounders than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Seattle Sounders that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Diego than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	12.5%	0%

Seattle Sounders - San Diego Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Seattle (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Seattle Sounders will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Thomas A. (G) 85. Kossa-Rienzi K. 16. Roldan A. 25. Ragen J. 5. Nouhou 7. Roldan C. (C) 37. Brunell S. 9. Ferreira J. 11. Rusnak A. 14. Rothrock P. 13. Morris J.	18. Ferree D. (G) 33. Verhoeven O. 97. McVey C. 26. Duah M. 27. Bombino L. 8. Valakari O. 20. Godoy A. (C) 19. Vazquez D. 10. Dreyer A. 7. Ingvartsen M. 90. Pellegrino A.
Substitutes
17. Arriola P. 95. De Rosario O. 31. Dotson H. 24. Frei S. (G) 90. Gomez S. 20. Kim Kee-Hee 45. Kingston P. 35. Lopez A. 19. Musovski D.	70. Alvarado Jr A. 22. Eisner W. 98. Jackson J. (G) 77. Mighten A. 25. Pilcher I. 29. Saidi A. 5. Sargeant K. 15. Soma P. 14. Zamble B. B.
Coaches
Schmetzer B.	Varas M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
18', 0 - 1, Ingvartsen M. ⚽, Valakari O. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', Ferreira J. 🟨,
56', Brunell S. 🟨,
57', Roldan C. 🟨,
63', Brunell S. ↓, Musovski D. ↑,
63', Kossa-Rienzi K. ↓, Kingston P. ↑,
65', Nouhou ↓, Lopez A. ↑,
74', Pellegrino A. ↓, Mighten A. ↑,
75', Mighten A. 🟨,
78', Verhoeven O. 🟨,
80', 1 - 1, Musovski D. ⚽, Roldan C. (A),
86', Vazquez D. ↓, Alvarado Jr A. ↑,
87', Bombino L. ↓, Sargeant K. ↑,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 12).

Seattle is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

San Diego has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Seattle is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Seattle: Gomez Andrade Y. (Hamstring Injury) Petkovic N. (Knee Injury) de La Vega P. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in San Diego: Kumado W. (Lower-Body Injury) Reyes A. (Lower-Body Injury) Sisniega P. (Back Injury) Tverskov J. (Lower-Body Injury)

There are questionable in Seattle: Kim Kee-Hee (Calf Injury) Sailor R. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in San Diego: dos Santos C. J. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Seattle won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Seattle won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Seattle Sounders - the odds 1.75 are the expected chance of winning is 54.13%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Seattle Sounders FC
MLS
02.05.26	Sporting Kansas City - Seattle Sounders	1:1 ✺
25.04.26	Seattle Sounders - FC Dallas	2:1 ✺
18.04.26	Seattle Sounders - St. Louis City	4:1 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
15.04.26	Seattle Sounders - Tigres UANL	3:1 ✺
08.04.26	Tigres UANL - Seattle Sounders	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TWWWL
- San Diego FC
MLS
02.05.26	San Diego - Los Angeles	2:2 ✺
25.04.26	San Diego - Portland Timbers	1:2 ✺
22.04.26	Houston Dynamo - San Diego	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	Real Salt Lake - San Diego	4:2 ✺
11.04.26	San Diego - Minnesota United	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

MLS
28.05.25	Seattle Sounders - San Diego	1:0
05.04.25	San Diego - Seattle Sounders	3:0

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