Match Info

Premier League - Round 27

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Shamakhi City Stadium (Shamakhi)

Referee: Mammadov I. (Aze)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport


	Shamakhi		Qarabağ Agdam

	1	X	2
	8.1	4.85	1.28	Watch
	12.24	5.41	1.3
	7.31	4.78	1.35	Watch
	8	4.8	1.3
	7.57	4.87	1.37	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.64 ↑ (6.45)	4.94 ↑ (3.83)	1.32 ↓ (1.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shamakhi
10.8%

Draw
18.8%

Qarabağ Agdam
70.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

14.1%

23.7%

62.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.8%

23.3%

63.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shamakhi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Qarabağ Agdam has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Qarabağ Agdam's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shamakhi than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Qarabağ Agdam than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Qarabağ Agdam, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Shamakhi - Qarabağ Agdam Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Qarabağ will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ricardo Fernandes (G) 82. Abbasov R. 7. Adilkhanov E. 5. Agcabayov A. (C) 13. Apolinario R. 4. Cezar 44. David Santos 97. Mammadov O. 2. Rzayev A. 19. Shuaibu A. 3. Veremeev V.	99. Kochalski M. (G) 44. Cafarquliyev E. 17. Duran C. 30. Huseynov A. 20. Kady Borges 15. Leandro Andrade 2. Matheus Silva 81. Medina K. 9. Montiel J. 35. Pedro Bicalho 10. Zoubir A. (C)
Substitutes
88. Fernandes R. 14. Gafarov R. 99. Hashimov S. (G) 80. Ismayilov H. 17. Maharramli R. 77. Mehraliyev N. 8. Msanga A. 62. Seyiahmadov A. (G) 27. Suleymanov E. 10. Tircoveanu A.	11. Addai E. 27. Bayramov T. 97. Buntic F. (G) 32. Cabrayilzada H. 24. Gnali J. 55. Huseynov B. 8. Jankovic M. 21. Kashchuk O. 1. Mahammadaliyev S. (G) 22. Qurbanly M. 77. Sheydayev R.
Coaches
Abbasov A.	Qurbanov Q.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Adilkhanov E. ↓, Msanga A. ↑,
59', Shuaibu A. ↓, Ismayilov H. ↑,
62', Kady Borges 🟨,
63', Duran C. 🟨,
67', Huseynov A. ↓, Bayramov T. ↑,
67', Kady Borges ↓, Qurbanly M. ↑,
72', Zoubir A. ↓, Jankovic M. ↑,
79', Rzayev A. ↓, Tircoveanu A. ↑,
82', Ismayilov H. 🟨,
86', Mammadov O. ↓, Suleymanov E. ↑,
89', Ricardo Fernandes 🟨,
89', Jankovic M. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 1-2. Aggregate: 4-3. Second leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Shamakhi won 1.

Shamakhi has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Qarabağ is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Shamakhi may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Qarabağ is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Shamakhi won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 15 matches, and goals 9:46. (average 0.5:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Shamakhi won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 5:18. (average 0.5:1.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Qarabag	5	4	1	0	9:4	5	13
6	Shamakhi	6	2	3	1	8:6	2	9

Last Results with these Odds

Qarabağ Agdam - the odds 1.46 are the expected chance of winning is 62.18%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shamakhi FK
Azerbaijan Premier League
07.04.26	Zira - Shamakhi	1:1 ✺
18.03.26	Shamakhi - Araz Naxçıvan	0:1 ✺
13.03.26	Sumgayit - Shamakhi	0:1 ✺
08.03.26	Shamakhi - İmişli	0:0 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
04.03.26	Qarabağ Agdam - Shamakhi	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 TLWTL
- FK Qarabağ Agdam
Azerbaijan Premier League
06.04.26	Qarabağ Agdam - Karvan	7:0 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
03.04.26	Qarabağ Agdam - Sabah	2:2 ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
20.03.26	Kapaz - Qarabağ Agdam	1:0 ✺
14.03.26	Zira - Qarabağ Agdam	1:3 ✺
08.03.26	Qarabağ Agdam - Araz Naxçıvan	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Cup
04.03.26	Qarabağ Agdam - Shamakhi	3:1
Azerbaijan Premier League
10.02.26	Shamakhi - Qarabağ Agdam	1:2
Azerbaijan Cup
05.02.26	Shamakhi - Qarabağ Agdam	2:1
Azerbaijan Premier League
26.10.25	Qarabağ Agdam - Shamakhi	0:0
24.05.25	Shamakhi - Qarabağ Agdam	0:1
17.01.25	Qarabağ Agdam - Shamakhi	3:2
19.12.24	Shamakhi - Qarabağ Agdam	0:1

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