Match Info

Date: 21 September 2020, Monday


	Shanghai Shenhua		Jiangsu Guoxin Sainty

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.75	1.75	Watch
	4	3.6	1.72
	4	3.8	1.75	Watch
	4.1	3.8	1.74
	4.13	4.05	1.83
	4	3.8	1.73	Watch
	4.45	4.2	1.85	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.17 ↓ (4.44)	3.86 ↑ (3.78)	1.77 ↑ (1.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 0.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shanghai Shenhua
22.5%

Draw
24.3%

Jiangsu Guoxin Sainty
53.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.1%

24.8%

54%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.5%

19.4%

68.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shanghai Shenhua has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Jiangsu Guoxin Sainty has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shanghai Shenhua than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Shanghai Shenhua that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jiangsu Guoxin Sainty than the current prediction. (+15.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Jiangsu Guoxin Sainty could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	11.1%	66.7%

Shanghai Shenhua - Jiangsu Guoxin Sainty Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Shanghai Shenhua will win (votes: 6 - 22.2%). Jiangsu Sainty will win (votes: 18 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Jiangsu Sainty: 48.9% – 84.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

Neutral location.

The neighbours in a tournament table will play in a very interesting match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion to Super League (Play Offs) and 2 in the zone Promotion to Super League (Play Offs)).

Shanghai Shenhua has not chance of relegated, has not chance of qualify for acl.

Jiangsu Sainty has not chance of relegated, has not chance of qualify for acl.

Shanghai Shenhua is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Jiangsu Sainty is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Jiangsu Sainty could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Jiangsu Sainty is a favorite.

Last 21 head-to-head matches Shanghai Shenhua won 6 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 29-34.

Including matches at home between the teams Shanghai Shenhua won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 17-13.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shanghai Shenhua
Chinese FA Cup
18.09.20	Shanghai Shenhua - Guangzhou City	1:2 penalties ✺
Chinese Super League
14.09.20	Dalian Pro - Shanghai Shenhua	1:1 ✺
09.09.20	Shanghai Shenhua - Shandong Taishan	1:1 ✺
04.09.20	Shenzhen - Shanghai Shenhua	0:0 ✺
30.08.20	Shanghai Shenhua - Guangzhou Evergrande	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 LTTTL
- Jiangsu Guoxin Sainty
Chinese FA Cup
18.09.20	Jiangsu Guoxin Sainty - Shenzhen	2:0 ✺
Chinese Super League
13.09.20	Jiangsu Guoxin Sainty - Guangzhou City	3:3 ✺
08.09.20	Dalian Pro - Jiangsu Guoxin Sainty	1:1 ✺
03.09.20	Shandong Taishan - Jiangsu Guoxin Sainty	0:1 ✺
30.08.20	Jiangsu Guoxin Sainty - Henan Songshan Longmen	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Chinese Super League
14.08.20	Jiangsu Guoxin Sainty - Shanghai Shenhua	0:1
27.11.19	Shanghai Shenhua - Jiangsu Guoxin Sainty	1:3
21.06.19	Jiangsu Guoxin Sainty - Shanghai Shenhua	0:1
15.09.18	Shanghai Shenhua - Jiangsu Guoxin Sainty	1:1
22.04.18	Jiangsu Guoxin Sainty - Shanghai Shenhua	5:1
08.07.17	Jiangsu Guoxin Sainty - Shanghai Shenhua	2:2
05.03.17	Shanghai Shenhua - Jiangsu Guoxin Sainty	4:0

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