Match Info

Premier League - Round 18

Date: 7 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Fisht Olympic Stadium (Sochi)

Referee: Kukulyak E. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Russia	Match! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru


	Sochi		Lokomotiv Moscow

	1	X	2
	5.47	4.08	1.64
	5.97	4.26	1.63	Watch
	5.33	3.75	1.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.59 ↑ (4.4)	4.03 ↑ (3.65)	1.6 ↓ (1.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sochi
17%

Draw
23.6%

Lokomotiv Moscow
59.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.1%

25.5%

53.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.5%

25%

52.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sochi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Lokomotiv Moscow has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lokomotiv Moscow's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sochi than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lokomotiv Moscow than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lokomotiv Moscow, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	16.7%	83.3%

Sochi - Lokomotiv Moscow Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Lokomotiv (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Lokomotiv (2.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Lokomotiv Moscow will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Lokomotiv (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Degtev A. (G) 82. Volkov S. 44. Stojic N. 3. Soldatenkov A. 28. Magal R. 6. Saavedra I. (C) 20. Vasiljev D. 10. Kramaric M. 19. Kovalenko A. 7. Zinkovskiy A. 8. Ignatov M.	1. Mitryushkin A. (G) 45. Silyanov A. 5. Nyamsi G. 23. Montes C. 3. Lucas Fasson 25. Prutsev D. 93. Karpukas A. 6. Barinov D. (C) 19. Rudenko A. 27. Komlichenko N. 83. Batrakov A.
Substitutes
5. Aberdin N. 59. Bart R. 99. Dyupin Y. (G) 29. Ezhov R. 9. Fedorov Z. 45. Kamano F. 18. Korneev A. 4. Litvinov V. 88. Lomaev I. (G) 17. Makarchuk A. 34. Osipov A. 27. Zaika K.	7. Bakaev Z. 90. Godyaev D. 22. Lantratov I. (G) 99. Myalkovskiy R. 24. Nenakhov M. 9. Pinyaev S. 59. Pogostnov E. 2. Ramirez C. 14. Saltykov N. 8. Sarveli V. 94. Timofeev A. 10. Vorobyev D.
Coaches
Osinkin I.	Galaktionov M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 3)
7', 0 - 1, Batrakov A. ⚽, Komlichenko N. (A),
25', 1 - 1, Kramaric M. ⚽, Saavedra I. (A),
29', 1 - 2, Rudenko A. ⚽,
31', Komlichenko N. 🟨,
34', 1 - 3, Rudenko A. ⚽, Batrakov A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Komlichenko N. ↓, Vorobyev D. ↑,
46', Kramaric M. ↓, Bart R. ↑,
56', Vasiljev D. ↓, Osipov A. ↑,
57', Volkov S. ↓, Zaika K. ↑,
62', Prutsev D. ↓, Bakaev Z. ↑,
68', 1 - 4, Vorobyev D. (Penalty Awarded),
69', Rudenko A. ↓, Pinyaev S. ↑,
72', Kovalenko A. ↓, Fedorov Z. ↑,
85', Zinkovskiy A. ↓, Kamano F. ↑,
86', Barinov D. ↓, Timofeev A. ↑,
86', Montes C. ↓, Pogostnov E. ↑,
88', 2 - 4, Kamano F. ⚽,
90', Ignatov M. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ FNL and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sochi won 0.

Sochi is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Lokomotiv has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Sochi may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Lokomotiv is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Sochi: Meleshin P. (Knee Injury) Rudakov M. (Inactive)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Sochi won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 13:23. (average 1:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Sochi won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:8. (average 1.5:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Sochi
Russian Premier League
01.12.25	Sochi - Dynamo Makhachkala	0:0 ✺
21.11.25	Akron Tolyatti - Sochi	3:2 ✺
08.11.25	Sochi - Rostov	0:1 ✺
02.11.25	Orenburg - Sochi	3:1 ✺
27.10.25	Akhmat Grozny - Sochi	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 TLLLW
- Lokomotiv Moscow
Russian Premier League
30.11.25	Rostov - Lokomotiv Moscow	1:3 ✺
Russian Cup
26.11.25	Lokomotiv Moscow - Spartak Moscow	2:3 ✺
Russian Premier League
23.11.25	Lokomotiv Moscow - Krasnodar	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	Lokomotiv Moscow - Orenburg	1:0 ✺
Russian Cup
06.11.25	Spartak Moscow - Lokomotiv Moscow	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Russian Premier League
19.07.25	Lokomotiv Moscow - Sochi	3:0
10.03.24	Lokomotiv Moscow - Sochi	2:2
27.08.23	Sochi - Lokomotiv Moscow	0:1
08.05.23	Lokomotiv Moscow - Sochi	3:0
Club Friendly
29.01.23	Lokomotiv Moscow - Sochi	2:0
Russian Premier League
08.10.22	Sochi - Lokomotiv Moscow	4:0
17.04.22	Sochi - Lokomotiv Moscow	2:2

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