Match Info

Premier League - Round 23

Date: 5 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Lukoil Arena (Moscow)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	Q Football Asia
Belarus	Belarus 5
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Russia	Match! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Sport 2


	Spartak Moscow		Lokomotiv Moscow

	1	X	2
	2.07	3.72	3.6
	2.07	3.75	3.55	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↑ (1.87)	3.74 ↓ (3.8)	3.58 ↓ (4.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Spartak Moscow
46.9%

Draw
26%

Lokomotiv Moscow
27.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.2%

25.2%

23.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.4%

24.6%

23.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Spartak Moscow has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Lokomotiv Moscow has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spartak Moscow than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Spartak Moscow, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lokomotiv Moscow than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	28.6%	14.3%

Spartak Moscow - Lokomotiv Moscow Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Spartak M will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Lokomotiv will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
98. Maksimenko A. (G) 97. Denisov D. 3. Wooh C. 4. Djiku A. 47. Zobnin R. (C) 68. Litvinov R. 83. Fernandes G. 18. Umyarov N. 5. Barco E. 7. Solari P. 11. Garcia L.	1. Mitryushkin A. (C) 45. Silyanov A. 85. Morozov E. 23. Montes C. 3. Lucas Fasson 25. Prutsev D. 93. Karpukas A. 7. Bakaev Z. 83. Batrakov A. 19. Rudenko A. 10. Vorobyev D.
Substitutes
27. Dmitriev I. 56. Dovbnya A. (G) 35. Martins C. 24. Massalyga N. 62. Polekh P. 1. Pomazun I. (G) 2. Reabciuk O. 40. Sorokin I. 9. Ugalde M. 91. Zabolotnyi A.	74. Chevardin D. 90. Godyaev D. 27. Komlichenko N. 22. Lantratov I. (G) 99. Myalkovskiy R. 24. Nenakhov M. 5. Nyamsi G. 14. Saltykov N. 8. Sarveli V. 94. Timofeev A. 32. Vera L. 16. Veselov D. (G)
Coaches
Carcedo J.	Galaktionov M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
23', 0 - 1, Montes C. ⚽, Batrakov A. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Garcia L. ↓, Ugalde M. ↑,
49', Vorobyev D. 🟨,
58', Morozov E. 🟨,
66', 1 - 1, Barco E. (Penalty Awarded),
68', Bakaev Z. ↓, Komlichenko N. ↑,
72', Morozov E. 🟨,
76', Vorobyev D. ↓, Nyamsi G. ↑,
78', Lucas Fasson 🟨,
79', Fernandes G. ↓, Polekh P. ↑,
82', Komlichenko N. 🟨,
83', 2 - 1, Solari P. ⚽, Zobnin R. (A),
90+5', Ugalde M. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 6 and 3).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Spartak M won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Spartak M is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Spartak M: Marquinhos (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Lokomotiv: Pinyaev S. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Spartak M: Babic S. (Knee Injury) Samoshnikov I. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Spartak M won 12 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 40:27. (average 2:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Spartak M won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 27:13. (average 2.5:1.2).

Outrights of Russian Premier League for now

Spartak Moscow: 15.08% Lokomotiv Moscow: 0.84%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Spartak Moscow	10	6	2	2	17:8	9	20
12	Lokomotiv Moscow	10	2	4	4	13:11	2	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Spartak Moscow
Russian Premier League
22.03.26	Orenburg - Spartak Moscow	0:2 ✺
Russian Cup
18.03.26	Spartak Moscow - Dynamo Moscow	1:0 ✺
Russian Premier League
14.03.26	Zenit - Spartak Moscow	2:0 ✺
09.03.26	Spartak Moscow - Akron Tolyatti	4:3 ✺
Russian Cup
05.03.26	Dynamo Moscow - Spartak Moscow	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WWLWL
- Lokomotiv Moscow
Russian Premier League
22.03.26	Lokomotiv Moscow - Akron Tolyatti	5:1 ✺
Russian Cup
19.03.26	Krylya Sovetov - Lokomotiv Moscow	3:2 penalties ✺
Russian Premier League
15.03.26	Rubin Kazan - Lokomotiv Moscow	3:0 ✺
09.03.26	Lokomotiv Moscow - Akhmat Grozny	2:2 ✺
Russian Cup
05.03.26	Arsenal Tula - Lokomotiv Moscow	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Russian Cup
26.11.25	Lokomotiv Moscow - Spartak Moscow	2:3
06.11.25	Spartak Moscow - Lokomotiv Moscow	3:1
Russian Premier League
09.08.25	Lokomotiv Moscow - Spartak Moscow	4:2
23.11.24	Spartak Moscow - Lokomotiv Moscow	5:2
28.09.24	Lokomotiv Moscow - Spartak Moscow	3:1
28.04.24	Spartak Moscow - Lokomotiv Moscow	3:2
05.11.23	Lokomotiv Moscow - Spartak Moscow	1:1

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