Match Info

Copa do Nordeste - Round 1

Date: 26 March 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Antonio Mariz (Marizao) (Sousa)


	Sousa		Confiança

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.2	2.8
	2.7	3.1	2.5
	2.35	3	2.82
	2.61	3	3.11
	2.47	3.12	2.77
	2.4	2.8	2.9
	2.31	3.37	2.94	Watch
	2.68	3.06	2.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↓ (2.6)	3.08 ↓ (3.2)	2.79 ↑ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sousa
37.3%

Draw
29.8%

Confiança
32.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.5%

28.1%

37.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.1%

27.8%

37.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sousa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Confiança has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sousa than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Confiança than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Sousa - Confiança Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Sousa will win (votes: 6 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Sousa (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Sousa (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Moises (G) 8. Diego Viana 17. Everton Heleno 10. Gianlucas (C) 6. Gilmar 7. Guimaraes 2. Iranilson 11. Luis Henrique 4. Marcelo 3. Pedro Costa 25. Veraldo	1. Rafael Pascoal (G) 7. Danielzinho 4. Eduardo Moura 11. Iago 6. Kelvyn 8. Lorran 3. Lucas Cunha 13. Renilson 99. Sassa (C) 2. Valdir Junior 10. Wendel
Substitutes
15. Abraao 9. Bambam 21. Estevan 16. Felipe Jacare 26. Gabriel Souza (G) 5. Hebert 20. Joao Pedro 14. Kiko 22. Lucas Gabriel (G) 19. Matheus Bambu 18. Natalicio 23. Neto Lisboa	21. Andrey Quintino 17. Fabricio 5. Gustavo Nicola 30. Joao Fernandes (G) 14. Joao Mandovani 19. Joao Pedro 9. Maikon Aquino 15. Marcelo 18. Mateus Ludke 12. Matheus Silva (G) 16. Weriton

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
19', 1 - 0, Everton Heleno ⚽,
25', 2 - 0, Everton Heleno ⚽,
41', Danielzinho 🟨,
45+2', 2 - 1, Eduardo Moura ⚽,
45+5', Alessandro Telles 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
54', Gianlucas ↓, Hebert ↑,
59', Iago ↓, Andrey Quintino ↑,
59', Danielzinho ↓, Joao Pedro ↑,
60', Veraldo ↓, Kiko ↑,
70', Guimaraes 🟨,
71', Lorran ↓, Gustavo Nicola ↑,
71', Sassa ↓, Maikon Aquino ↑,
74', 3 - 1, Diego Viana ⚽,
90+1', Luis Henrique ↓, Matheus Bambu ↑,
90+2', Renilson ↓, Fabricio ↑,
90+6', Iranilson 🟨,
90+9', 4 - 1, Felipe Jacare ⚽,

Preview

Sousa has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Confiança is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Confiança may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Sousa won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Confiança - the odds 2.4 are the expected chance of winning is 37.41%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sousa
Brazilian Campeonato Paraibano
21.03.26	Botafogo PB - Sousa	0:0 ✺
15.03.26	Sousa - Botafogo PB	1:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
12.03.26	Sousa - CRB Maceio	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paraibano
08.03.26	Campinense - Sousa	0:2 penalties ✺
Copa do Brasil
05.03.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Sousa	0:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.9 TLLWW
- AD Confiança Aracaju
Copa do Brasil
18.03.26	Vila Nova - Confiança	0:1 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
14.03.26	Sergipe - Confiança	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
11.03.26	Confiança - Tombense	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
07.03.26	Confiança - Sergipe	1:1 ✺
28.02.26	Itabaiana - Confiança	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.1 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
05.01.23	Confiança - Sousa	1:0

Sousa - Confiança: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide