Match Info

NPL Victoria - Round 23

Date: 2 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Lakeside Stadium (Melbourne)


	South Melbourne		St Albans Dinamo

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.63	4.10	4.20
	1.62	3.95	4.15
	1.73	4	4.15
	1.6	4.29	4.71	Watch
	1.69	3.9	4.05
	1.72	4.06	4.16	Watch
	1.64	4	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↑ (1.6)	4.04 ↓ (4.32)	4.23 ↓ (4.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

South Melbourne
55.4%

Draw
22.8%

St Albans Dinamo
21.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58%

21.5%

20.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.5%

20.6%

19.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

South Melbourne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

St Albans Dinamo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for South Melbourne than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for South Melbourne, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St Albans Dinamo than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

South Melbourne - St Albans Dinamo Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - St Albans (1.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. St Albans (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
32', 1 - 0, ⚽,
40', 2 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Victoria (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, South Melbourne won 3.

South Melbourne is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

St Albans has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

South Melbourne may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, South Melbourne is the team to beat.

We predict that South Melbourne will win today's game, with odds of 1.66.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, South Melbourne won 10 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 37:9. (average 2.8:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, South Melbourne won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 20:5. (average 3.3:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- South Melbourne FC
Australian Cup
30.07.26	South Melbourne - Adelaide United	2:1 ✺
Australian NPL Victoria
24.07.26	Oakleigh Cannons - South Melbourne	1:2 ✺
18.07.26	South Melbourne - Preston Lions	0:0 ✺
10.07.26	Dandenong City - South Melbourne	0:2 ✺
05.07.26	South Melbourne - Dandenong Thunder	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.3 WWTWW
- St Albans Dinamo
Australian NPL Victoria
24.07.26	St Albans Dinamo - Hume City	3:2 ✺
18.07.26	Avondale - St Albans Dinamo	1:1 ✺
12.07.26	St Albans Dinamo - Caroline Springs George Cross	2:2 ✺
03.07.26	Heidelberg United - St Albans Dinamo	1:1 ✺
26.06.26	St Albans Dinamo - Melbourne City Youth	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.6 WTTTL

Latest Head to Head

Australian NPL Victoria
24.04.26	St Albans Dinamo - South Melbourne	0:4
06.06.25	St Albans Dinamo - South Melbourne	2:2
03.03.25	South Melbourne - St Albans Dinamo	0:3
18.08.24	South Melbourne - St Albans Dinamo	2:1
12.05.24	St Albans Dinamo - South Melbourne	1:4
20.06.23	South Melbourne - St Albans Dinamo	4:0
26.03.23	St Albans Dinamo - South Melbourne	0:1

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