Match Info

FA Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: St. Mary's Stadium (Southampton) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Corlett M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, SuperSport Football Plus, SuperSport MaXimo 1
Argentina	12:00	Disney+
Australia	02:00	Stan Sport
Austria	16:00	DAZN
Bosnia And Herzegovina	16:00	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	12:00	Disney+
Bulgaria	17:00	Play Diema Xtra
Canada	10:00	Sportsnet+
China	23:00	Migu
Croatia	16:00	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	16:00	Viaplay, Viaplay Sport News
Finland	17:00	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, V Sport Premium
Germany	16:00	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	17:00	COSMOTE Sport 4
Hong Kong	23:00	M Plus Live
Hungary	16:00	TV2 Play Premium
Iceland	15:00	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
India	20:30	JioTV app, Sony LIV
Indonesia	22:00	Vidio
Israel	17:00	Sport 1
Italy	16:00	DAZN Italia, Discovery+
Japan	00:00	U-NEXT
Kazakhstan	21:00	Sport+
Kenya	18:00	Gotv
Malaysia	23:00	Astro Go, Astro Grandstand, SKY NET Sports X, Sooka
Mexico	09:00	FOX One
Netherlands	16:00	Viaplay
New Zealand	04:00	beIN Connect
Nigeria	16:00	SuperSport Football Plus, Supersport Maximo 1
Pakistan	20:00	Tapmad
Peru	10:00	Disney+
Romania	17:00	Voyo
Serbia	16:00	Arena Sport 1x2
Slovenia	16:00	Arena Sport 4
South Africa	17:00	SuperSport Action, Supersport Maximo 1
South Korea	00:00	Coupang Play
Sweden	16:00	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
Switzerland	16:00	DAZN Switzerland
Uruguay	12:00	Disney+
Usa	10:00	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	11:00	Disney+
Vietnam	22:00	FPT Play


	Southampton		Leicester City

	1	X	2
	1.76	3.8	4
	1.73	3.9	4.4
	1.82	3.95	4.15
	1.85	3.91	4.27
	1.84	3.87	4.1	Watch
	1.8	3.5	3.8
	1.86	3.94	4.15	Watch
	1.75	3.8	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↑ (1.7)	3.83 ↑ (3.8)	4.15 ↓ (4.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Southampton
52.5%

Draw
24.7%

Leicester City
22.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

55%

24.6%

20.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.1%

24%

19.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Southampton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Leicester City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Southampton than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leicester City than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	28.6%	0%

Southampton - Leicester City Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. S`hampton will win (votes: 15 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for S`hampton: 56% – 94%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - S`hampton (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Southampton will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. S`hampton (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Long G. (G) 38. Jelert E. 15. Wood N. 17. Quarshie J. 3. Manning R. (C) 28. Romeu O. 48. Bragg C. 27. Matsuki K. 19. Archer C. 23. Edozie S. 9. Larin C.	1. Stolarczyk J. (G) 56. Aluko O. 5. Okoli C. 4. Nelson B. (C) 16. Kristiansen V. 22. Skipp O. 25. Page L. 28. Monga J. 29. Mukasa D. 10. Mavididi S. 9. Ayew J.
Substitutes
10. Azaz F. 14. Bree J. 55. Dobson-Ventura T. 37. O'Brien Whitmarsh J. 49. Oyekunle N. 41. Peretz D. (G) 47. Sesay M. 57. Sillah Dibaga S. 53. Williams B.	31. Begovic A. (G) 20. Daka P. 62. Gray K. 27. Marcal W. 21. Pereira R. 12. Richards D. 33. Thomas L. 39. Thomas S. 8. Winks H.
Coaches
Eckert T.	King A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
27', Page L. 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 0, Larin C. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
52', 1 - 1, Skipp O. ⚽,
56', Nelson B. 🟨,
63', Edozie S. ↓, Sillah Dibaga S. ↑,
63', Romeu O. ↓, Williams B. ↑,
67', Page L. ↓, Winks H. ↑,
67', Kristiansen V. ↓, Thomas L. ↑,
75', Archer C. ↓, Azaz F. ↑,
79', Ayew J. ↓, Daka P. ↑,
79', Aluko O. ↓, Pereira R. ↑,
83', Thomas L. 🟨,
84', Matsuki K. ↓, O'Brien Whitmarsh J. ↑,
84', Larin C. ↓, Oyekunle N. ↑,
86', Bragg C. 🟨,
87', Monga J. ↓, Richards D. ↑,
Extra Time (1 - 0)
101', Manning R. 🟨,
103', Jelert E. ↓, Bree J. ↑,
108', Mavididi S. ↓, Thomas S. ↑,
109', 2 - 1, Bree J. ⚽,
120+1', Okoli C. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, S`hampton won 2.

S`hampton has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Leicester has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, S`hampton is seen as the favorite.

We predict that S`hampton will win today's game, with odds of 1.72.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, S`hampton won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 23:46. (average 1.2:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, S`hampton won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:25. (average 1.3:2.8).

Outrights of English FA Cup for now

Southampton: 0.56% Leicester: 0.35%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Southampton FC
English League Championship
10.02.26	Leicester City - Southampton	3:4 ✺
07.02.26	Southampton - Watford	1:0 ✺
31.01.26	Stoke City - Southampton	0:2 ✺
25.01.26	Portsmouth - Southampton	1:1 ✺
21.01.26	Southampton - Sheffield United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WWWTW
- Leicester City
English League Championship
10.02.26	Leicester City - Southampton	3:4 ✺
07.02.26	Birmingham City - Leicester City	2:1 ✺
31.01.26	Leicester City - Charlton Athletic	0:2 ✺
24.01.26	Leicester City - Oxford United	1:2 ✺
20.01.26	Wrexham - Leicester City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
10.02.26	Leicester City - Southampton	3:4
25.11.25	Southampton - Leicester City	3:0
English Premier League
03.05.25	Leicester City - Southampton	2:0
19.10.24	Southampton - Leicester City	2:3
English League Championship
23.04.24	Leicester City - Southampton	5:0
15.09.23	Southampton - Leicester City	1:4
English Premier League
04.03.23	Southampton - Leicester City	1:0

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