Match Info

FA Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday

Location: St. Mary's Stadium (Southampton)

Referee: Corlett M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SuperSport Football Plus, SuperSport MaXimo 1
Argentina	Disney+
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Play Diema Xtra
Canada	Sportsnet+
China	Migu
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	Viaplay, Viaplay Sport News
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, V Sport Premium
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 4
Hong-kong	M Plus Live
Hungary	TV2 Play Premium
Iceland	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV
Indonesia	Vidio
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	DAZN Italia, Discovery+
Japan	U-NEXT
Kazakhstan	Sport+
Kenya	Gotv
Malaysia	Astro Go, Astro Grandstand, SKY NET Sports X, Sooka
Mexico	FOX One
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport Football Plus, Supersport Maximo 1
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Romania	Voyo
Serbia	Arena Sport 1x2
Slovenia	Arena Sport 4
South-africa	SuperSport Action, Supersport Maximo 1
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	FPT Play


	Southampton		Leicester City

	1	X	2
	1.76	3.8	4
	1.73	3.9	4.4
	1.82	3.95	4.15
	1.85	3.91	4.27
	1.84	3.87	4.1	Watch
	1.8	3.5	3.8
	1.86	3.94	4.15	Watch
	1.75	3.8	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↑ (1.7)	3.83 ↑ (3.8)	4.15 ↓ (4.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Southampton
52.5%

Draw
24.7%

Leicester City
22.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55%

24.6%

20.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.1%

24.1%

20%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Southampton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Leicester City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Southampton than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leicester City than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	28.6%	0%

Southampton - Leicester City Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. S`hampton will win (votes: 15 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for S`hampton: 56% – 94%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - S`hampton (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Southampton will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. S`hampton (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Long G. (G) 38. Jelert E. 15. Wood N. 17. Quarshie J. 3. Manning R. (C) 28. Romeu O. 48. Bragg C. 27. Matsuki K. 19. Archer C. 23. Edozie S. 9. Larin C.	1. Stolarczyk J. (G) 56. Aluko O. 5. Okoli C. 4. Nelson B. (C) 16. Kristiansen V. 22. Skipp O. 25. Page L. 28. Monga J. 29. Mukasa D. 10. Mavididi S. 9. Ayew J.
Substitutes
10. Azaz F. 14. Bree J. 55. Dobson-Ventura T. 37. O'Brien Whitmarsh J. 49. Oyekunle N. 41. Peretz D. (G) 47. Sesay M. 57. Sillah Dibaga S. 53. Williams B.	31. Begovic A. (G) 20. Daka P. 62. Gray K. 27. Marcal W. 21. Pereira R. 12. Richards D. 33. Thomas L. 39. Thomas S. 8. Winks H.
Coaches
Eckert T.	King A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
27', Page L. 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 0, Larin C. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
52', 1 - 1, Skipp O. ⚽,
56', Nelson B. 🟨,
63', Edozie S. ↓, Sillah Dibaga S. ↑,
63', Romeu O. ↓, Williams B. ↑,
67', Page L. ↓, Winks H. ↑,
67', Kristiansen V. ↓, Thomas L. ↑,
75', Archer C. ↓, Azaz F. ↑,
79', Ayew J. ↓, Daka P. ↑,
79', Aluko O. ↓, Pereira R. ↑,
83', Thomas L. 🟨,
84', Matsuki K. ↓, O'Brien Whitmarsh J. ↑,
84', Larin C. ↓, Oyekunle N. ↑,
86', Bragg C. 🟨,
87', Monga J. ↓, Richards D. ↑,
Extra Time (1 - 0)
101', Manning R. 🟨,
103', Jelert E. ↓, Bree J. ↑,
108', Mavididi S. ↓, Thomas S. ↑,
109', 2 - 1, Bree J. ⚽,
120+1', Okoli C. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, S`hampton won 2.

S`hampton has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Leicester has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, S`hampton is seen as the favorite.

We predict that S`hampton will win today's game, with odds of 1.72.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, S`hampton won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 23:46. (average 1.2:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, S`hampton won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:25. (average 1.3:2.8).

Outrights of English FA Cup for now

Southampton: 0.51% Leicester: 0.32%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Southampton FC
English League Championship
10.02.26	Leicester City - Southampton	3:4 ✺
07.02.26	Southampton - Watford	1:0 ✺
31.01.26	Stoke City - Southampton	0:2 ✺
25.01.26	Portsmouth - Southampton	1:1 ✺
21.01.26	Southampton - Sheffield United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WWWTW
- Leicester City
English League Championship
10.02.26	Leicester City - Southampton	3:4 ✺
07.02.26	Birmingham City - Leicester City	2:1 ✺
31.01.26	Leicester City - Charlton Athletic	0:2 ✺
24.01.26	Leicester City - Oxford United	1:2 ✺
20.01.26	Wrexham - Leicester City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
10.02.26	Leicester City - Southampton	3:4
25.11.25	Southampton - Leicester City	3:0
English Premier League
03.05.25	Leicester City - Southampton	2:0
19.10.24	Southampton - Leicester City	2:3
English League Championship
23.04.24	Leicester City - Southampton	5:0
15.09.23	Southampton - Leicester City	1:4
English Premier League
04.03.23	Southampton - Leicester City	1:0

Upcoming Matches