Match Info

Championship - Round 31

Date: 7 February 2026, Saturday

Location: St. Mary's Stadium (Southampton)

Referee: Bell E. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+
Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, Paramount+


	Southampton		Watford

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.7	3.75	Watch
	1.88	3.6	4
	1.96	3.69	3.69	Watch
	1.97	3.68	3.91
	1.97	3.69	3.66	Watch
	1.91	3.4	3.75
	1.92	3.81	4.06	Watch
	1.94	3.66	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↑ (1.69)	3.65 ↓ (3.94)	3.83 ↓ (4.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Southampton
49.2%

Draw
26%

Watford
24.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56%

24%

20%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.6%

23.3%

19.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Southampton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Southampton's form might have worsened.

Watford has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Southampton than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Southampton, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Watford than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Watford, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.5%	5.4%	4.1%

Southampton - Watford Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Watford (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Southampton will win (66 of 73 users predict this - 90.41%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.66% – 97.16%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Southampton will win (52 of 56 users predict this - 92.86%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 57 Selected Experts predict this event. S`hampton (votes: 52 - 91.2%). Watford (votes: 3 - 5.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 3.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Peretz D. (G) 14. Bree J. 6. Harwood-Bellis T. 5. Stephens J. (C) 34. Welington 20. Jander C. 4. Downes F. 18. Fellows T. 10. Azaz F. 13. Scienza L. 11. Stewart R.	1. Selvik E. (G) 2. Ngakia J. 25. Abankwah J. 21. Mfuni S. 16. Bola M. 23. Mendy N. 10. Louza I. (C) 42. Maamma O. 39. Kayembe E. 8. Chakvetadze G. 20. Doumbia M.
Substitutes
19. Archer C. 24. Charles S. 23. Edozie S. 38. Jelert E. 9. Larin C. 3. Manning R. 27. Matsuki K. 1. McCarthy A. (G) 15. Wood N.	34. Baah K. 12. Baxter N. (G) 3. Goglichidze S. 43. Grieves J. 7. Ince T. 9. Kjerrumgaard L. 27. Mendy F. 29. Petris J. 18. Semedo V.
Coaches
Eckert T.	Daniels C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
38', Downes F. ↓, Charles S. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', Harwood-Bellis T. 🟨,
63', Doumbia M. ↓, Kjerrumgaard L. ↑,
66', Chakvetadze G. 🟨,
67', Stewart R. ↓, Larin C. ↑,
67', Scienza L. ↓, Edozie S. ↑,
70', Mfuni S. ↓, Goglichidze S. ↑,
70', 1 - 0, Larin C. ⚽, Bree J. (A),
75', Bree J. 🟨,
85', Ngakia J. ↓, Petris J. ↑,
85', Mendy N. ↓, Mendy F. ↑,
86', Maamma O. ↓, Baah K. ↑,
90', Fellows T. ↓, Wood N. ↑,
90+3', Charles S. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 14 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, S`hampton won 2.

S`hampton is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Watford is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Watford may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, S`hampton is considered a favorite.

There will not play in S`hampton: Roerslev Rasmussen M. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Watford: Bove E. (Heart Problems) Ekwah P. (Inactive) Grieves J. (Inactive) Irankunda N. (Red Card) Vata R. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in S`hampton: Bragg C. (Concussion) Edozie S. (Hamstring Injury) Romeu O. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, S`hampton won 9 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 32:20. (average 1.7:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, S`hampton won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:9. (average 1.6:1).

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Southampton: 6.85% Watford: 0.33%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Southampton	8	4	2	2	19:10	9	10
20	Watford	9	2	2	5	7:14	-7	8

Last Results with these Odds

Watford - the odds 4.72 are the expected chance of winning is 20.04%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Southampton FC
English League Championship
31.01.26	Stoke City - Southampton	0:2 ✺
25.01.26	Portsmouth - Southampton	1:1 ✺
21.01.26	Southampton - Sheffield United	1:0 ✺
17.01.26	Southampton - Hull City	1:2 ✺
English FA Cup
10.01.26	Doncaster Rovers - Southampton	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WTWLW
- Watford FC
English League Championship
03.02.26	Hull City - Watford	0:0 ✺
31.01.26	Watford - Swansea City	0:2 ✺
24.01.26	Blackburn Rovers - Watford	1:1 ✺
21.01.26	Watford - Portsmouth	1:1 ✺
17.01.26	Watford - Millwall	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 TLTTL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
30.08.25	Watford - Southampton	2:2
13.04.24	Southampton - Watford	3:2
English FA Cup
06.02.24	Southampton - Watford	3:0
28.01.24	Watford - Southampton	1:1
English League Championship
09.12.23	Watford - Southampton	1:1
English Premier League
13.03.22	Southampton - Watford	1:2
30.10.21	Watford - Southampton	0:1

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