Match Info

Championship - Round 29

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Fratton Park (Portsmouth)

Referee: Smith L. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+
Usa	CBS Sports Network, Paramount+


	Portsmouth		Southampton

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.5	2.05	Watch
	3.3	3.5	2.1
	3.35	3.54	2.12	Watch
	3.46	3.55	2.16
	3.48	3.58	2.06	Watch
	3.3	3.3	2.1
	3.51	3.65	2.12	Watch
	3.6	3.5	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.4 ↓ (3.76)	3.52 ↓ (3.68)	2.1 ↑ (1.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portsmouth
27.9%

Draw
26.9%

Southampton
45.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.1%

25.7%

49.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.5%

26.3%

50.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portsmouth has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Southampton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portsmouth than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Southampton than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Southampton could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60.9%	13%	26.1%

Portsmouth - Southampton Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Portsmouth will win (votes: 14 - 60.9%). S`hampton will win (votes: 6 - 26.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 13%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Portsmouth: 41% – 80.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Portsmouth (votes: 2 - 66.7%). S`hampton (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - Portsmouth (1.68) (votes: 2 - 50%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - S`hampton (2.14) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Portsmouth (votes: 4 - 50%). S`hampton (votes: 4 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Schmid N. (G) 24. Devlin T. 22. Swanson Z. 17. Bowat I. 3. Ogilvie C. 21. Dozzell A. 38. Adams E. 10. Segecic A. 36. Chaplin C. 27. Alli M. 9. Bishop C. (C)	41. Peretz D. (G) 14. Bree J. 6. Harwood-Bellis T. 5. Stephens J. (C) 34. Welington 4. Downes F. 20. Jander C. 27. Matsuki K. 10. Azaz F. 13. Scienza L. 9. Armstrong A.
Substitutes
14. Anderson K. 26. Bursik J. (G) 19. Farrell J. 25. Kirk M. 16. Le Roux L. 7. Pack M. 5. Poole R. 8. Swift J. 2. Williams J.	19. Archer C. 24. Charles S. 18. Fellows T. 38. Jelert E. 3. Manning R. 1. McCarthy A. (G) 46. Robinson J. 11. Stewart R. 15. Wood N.
Coaches
Mousinho J.	Eckert T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
57', 0 - 1, Scienza L. ⚽, Azaz F. (A),
63', Matsuki K. ↓, Fellows T. ↑,
63', Azaz F. ↓, Charles S. ↑,
66', Bowat I. ↓, Williams J. ↑,
67', Scienza L. ↓, Robinson J. ↑,
68', Armstrong A. ↓, Stewart R. ↑,
70', Downes F. 🟨,
70', Swanson Z. 🟨,
71', Chaplin C. ↓, Anderson K. ↑,
71', Dozzell A. ↓, Pack M. ↑,
77', 1 - 1, Adams E. ⚽,
82', Adams E. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 22 in the zone Relegation ~ League One and 15).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

S`hampton may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

S`hampton will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Portsmouth: Blair H. (Injury) Knight J. (Back Injury) Kosznovszky M. (Injury) Matthews H. (Ankle Injury) Umeh F. (Hamstring Injury) Waddingham T. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in S`hampton: Edozie S. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Portsmouth: Lang C. (Inactive) Murphy J. (Injury)

There are questionable in S`hampton: Roerslev Rasmussen M. (Knee Injury) Romeu O. (Inactive)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Portsmouth won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:6. (average 0.7:2).

Including home match between the teams, Portsmouth won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:4.

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Southampton: 9.9% Portsmouth: 0.98%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Southampton	8	4	2	2	19:10	9	10
19	Portsmouth	7	2	2	3	9:10	-1	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portsmouth FC
English League Championship
21.01.26	Watford - Portsmouth	1:1 ✺
17.01.26	Sheffield Wednesday - Portsmouth	0:1 ✺
English FA Cup
11.01.26	Portsmouth - Arsenal	1:4 ✺
English League Championship
01.01.26	Bristol City - Portsmouth	5:0 ✺
29.12.25	Portsmouth - Charlton Athletic	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 TWLLW
- Southampton FC
English League Championship
21.01.26	Southampton - Sheffield United	1:0 ✺
17.01.26	Southampton - Hull City	1:2 ✺
English FA Cup
10.01.26	Doncaster Rovers - Southampton	2:3 ✺
English League Championship
04.01.26	Middlesbrough - Southampton	4:0 ✺
01.01.26	Southampton - Millwall	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
14.09.25	Southampton - Portsmouth	0:0
English League Cup
24.09.19	Portsmouth - Southampton	0:4
English League Championship
07.04.12	Southampton - Portsmouth	2:2

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