Match Info

Championship - Round 30

Date: 31 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Bet365 Stadium (Stoke on Trent)

Referee: Hallam F. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Stoke City		Southampton

	1	X	2
	2.57	3.25	2.55	Watch
	2.75	3.4	2.45
	2.67	3.36	2.62	Watch
	2.76	3.39	2.66
	2.69	3.4	2.59	Watch
	2.7	3.1	2.5
	2.88	3.38	2.58	Watch
	2.66	3.33	2.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 ↓ (2.94)	3.33 ↓ (3.37)	2.58 ↑ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stoke City
34.9%

Draw
28.4%

Southampton
36.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.3%

28.2%

39.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.3%

29.1%

40.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stoke City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Southampton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stoke City than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Southampton than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
41.2%	23.5%	35.3%

Stoke City - Southampton Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Stoke will win (votes: 7 - 41.2%). S`hampton will win (votes: 6 - 35.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 23.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Stoke: 17.8% – 64.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Stoke (votes: 1 - 14.3%). S`hampton (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - S`hampton (1.85) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Stoke (votes: 1 - 11.1%). S`hampton (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Simkin T. (G) 40. Talovierov M. 26. Phillips A. 18. Lawal B. 17. Bocat E. 19. Rigo T. 15. N'Zonzi S. (C) 10. Bae J. 7. Thomas S. 49. Smit M. 29. Cisse L.	41. Peretz D. (G) 14. Bree J. 6. Harwood-Bellis T. 5. Stephens J. (C) 34. Welington 4. Downes F. 20. Jander C. 18. Fellows T. 10. Azaz F. 13. Scienza L. 11. Stewart R.
Substitutes
3. Cresswell A. 55. Curley R. 56. Fawunmi F. 34. Fielding F. (G) 23. Gibson B. 4. Pearson B. 12. Seko T. 8. Smith W. 16. Wilmot B.	24. Charles S. 38. Jelert E. 3. Manning R. 27. Matsuki K. 1. McCarthy A. (G) . Oyekunle N. 17. Quarshie J. 46. Robinson J. 15. Wood N.
Coaches
Robins M.	Eckert T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Azaz F. ⚽, Fellows T. (A),
30', Azaz F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', N'Zonzi S. ↓, Pearson B. ↑,
46', Talovierov M. ↓, Wilmot B. ↑,
46', Rigo T. ↓, Seko T. ↑,
52', 0 - 2, Downes F. ⚽, Stewart R. (A),
65', Scienza L. ↓, Matsuki K. ↑,
65', Stewart R. ↓, Oyekunle N. ↑,
71', Stephens J. 🟨,
73', Peretz D. 🟨,
74', Jander C. ↓, Charles S. ↑,
78', Bae J. ↓, Curley R. ↑,
83', Fawunmi F. 🟨,
90+1', Fellows T. ↓, Manning R. ↑,
90+2', Lawal B. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 11 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stoke won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Stoke: Baker L. (Ankle Injury) Bazunu G. (Inactive) Bozenik R. (Shoulder Injury) Gallagher S. (Inactive) Gibson B. (Inactive) Johansson V. (Shoulder Injury) Lowe N. (Inactive) Tchamadeu J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Stoke: Mubama D. (Inactive)

There are questionable in S`hampton: Edozie S. (Hamstring Injury) Roerslev Rasmussen M. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Romeu O. (Ankle Injury) Scienza L. (Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Stoke won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 21:20. (average 1.2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Stoke won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:12. (average 1.4:1.5).

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Southampton: 9.9%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Stoke	9	5	1	3	15:13	2	16
16	Southampton	8	4	2	2	19:10	9	10

Last Results with these Odds

Stoke City - the odds 2.94 are the expected chance of winning is 32.31%, but this team recently wins 8% of matches with these odds.

Southampton - the odds 2.4 are the expected chance of winning is 39.51%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stoke City
English League Championship
24.01.26	Birmingham City - Stoke City	1:1 ✺
21.01.26	Stoke City - Middlesbrough	1:2 ✺
17.01.26	Stoke City - Queens Park Rangers	0:0 ✺
English FA Cup
10.01.26	Stoke City - Coventry City	1:0 ✺
English League Championship
04.01.26	Norwich City - Stoke City	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 TLTWW
- Southampton FC
English League Championship
25.01.26	Portsmouth - Southampton	1:1 ✺
21.01.26	Southampton - Sheffield United	1:0 ✺
17.01.26	Southampton - Hull City	1:2 ✺
English FA Cup
10.01.26	Doncaster Rovers - Southampton	2:3 ✺
English League Championship
04.01.26	Middlesbrough - Southampton	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 TWLWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
23.08.25	Southampton - Stoke City	1:2
English League Cup
29.10.24	Southampton - Stoke City	3:2
English League Championship
27.04.24	Southampton - Stoke City	0:1
03.10.23	Stoke City - Southampton	0:1
English Premier League
03.03.18	Southampton - Stoke City	0:0
30.09.17	Stoke City - Southampton	2:1
21.05.17	Southampton - Stoke City	0:1

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