Match Info

NETHERLANDS: KNVB BEKER - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 19 December 2023, Tuesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	ESPN


	Spakenburg		Excelsior

	1	X	2
	4	4.2	1.73
	3.8	3.75	1.72
	4.2	4	1.75	Watch
	4.93	4.3	1.55
	4.1	4.14	1.68
	3.9	3.9	1.65
	4.3	4.15	1.7
	3.9	4	1.74
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.14 ↓ (6.84)	4.06 ↓ (4.9)	1.69 ↑ (1.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Spakenburg
22.4%

Draw
22.8%

Excelsior
54.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13.2%

18.5%

68.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.3%

15%

55.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Spakenburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Spakenburg's performance.

Excelsior has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Excelsior might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Spakenburg than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Spakenburg that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Excelsior than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Spakenburg - Excelsior Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Spakenburg will win (votes: 6 - 60%). Excelsior will win (votes: 4 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Spakenburg: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Heus M. (G) 2. Verhagen N. 3. Artien M. 15. van Lopik H. 14. Wesdorp K. 10. Vink W. 5. Green D. 6. Noordhoff T. 11. Suleiman M. 9. van der Linden F. (C) 7. El Azzouti A.	18. Alblas N. (G) 5. Widell C. 2. Horemans S. 4. el Yaakoubi R. 22. Benita M. 30. Sanches Fernandes D. 33. Baas J. (C) 10. Fitz-Jim K. 7. Lamprou L. 9. Parrott T. 14. Driouech C.
Substitutes
27. Damen A. (G) 13. de Ruiter M. 43. Kleijweg T. 29. Koelewijn Y. 18. Kourouma F. 20. Kroonenberg N. 19. Ruizendaal L. 44. van Dieren K. 16. van Diermen J. 17. van Essen B. 21. Veenhoven M. 4. Werkman K.	19. Agrafiotis N. 32. de Moes S. 38. Kuiper P. (G) 15. Naujoks N. 16. Nieuwpoort S. 17. Omorowa R. 11. Uddenas O. 29. van Duinen M. 1. van Gassel S. (G)
Coaches
de Graaf C.	Dijkhuizen M.

Preview

Spakenburg in the last match got series victories and it is in a super good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Excelsior is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Excelsior is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SV Spakenburg
Dutch Tweede Divisie
16.12.23	Spakenburg - De Treffers	3:0 ✺
09.12.23	ADO 20 Heemskerk - Spakenburg	1:2 ✺
02.12.23	Spakenburg - GVVV	4:1 ✺
25.11.23	Quick Boys - Spakenburg	1:1 ✺
18.11.23	Spakenburg - Jong Sparta Rotterdam	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WWWTW
- Excelsior Rotterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
16.12.23	Excelsior - Go Ahead Eagles	1:1 ✺
08.12.23	Twente - Excelsior	4:2 ✺
02.12.23	Waalwijk - Excelsior	2:2 ✺
25.11.23	Excelsior - Feyenoord	2:4 ✺
12.11.23	Utrecht - Excelsior	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 TLTLT

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