Match Info

Serie B - Round 11

Date: 2 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Brianteo (Monza)

Referee: La Penna F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Sporty TV, StarTimes App
Italy	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Italia, Destination Calcio, LAB Channel
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4
Russia	Telekanal Futbol
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Switzerland	Blue Sport 8, Blue Sport 8
United-kingdom	DCTV
Usa	DCTV, Fox Soccer Plus, Fox
World	Onefootball


	Monza		Spezia

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.3	4.2	Watch
	1.92	3.15	4.05	Watch
	2.05	3.39	3.32	Watch
	1.98	3.15	4.09	Watch
	1.96	3.25	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (2.05)	3.25 ↓ (3.39)	3.95 ↑ (3.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Monza
47.7%

Draw
28.7%

Spezia
23.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45%

27.2%

27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.8%

26.7%

27.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Monza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Spezia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Monza than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	20%	20%

Monza - Spezia Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Monza will win (votes: 9 - 60%). Spezia will win (votes: 3 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Monza: 35.2% – 84.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Monza (1.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Monza will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Monza (votes: 8 - 88.9%). Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
20. Thiam D. (G) 4. Izzo A. 13. Ravanelli L. 44. Carboni A. 26. Ciurria P. 14. Obiang P. 32. Pessina M. (C) 7. Azzi P. 28. Colpani A. 17. Balde K. 47. Mota D.	1. Sarr M. (G) 37. Mateju A. 2. Wisniewski P. 6. Fellipe Jack 32. Vignali L. (C) 23. Candela A. 29. Cassata F. 8. Nagy A. 31. Aurelio G. 99. Vlahovic V. 10. Lapadula G.
Substitutes
19. Birindelli S. 2. Brorsson A. 27. Capolupo S. 10. Caprari G. 21. Colombo L. 15. Delli Carri F. 23. Galazzi N. 3. Lucchesi L. 9. Maric M. 1. Pizzignacco S. (G) 16. Sardo J. 18. Zeroli K.	36. Candelari P. 15. Cistana A. 20. Di Serio G. 55. Hristov P. 80. Kouda R. 77. Lorenzelli E. 16. Loria L. (G) 12. Mascardi D. (G) 27. Soleri E.
Coaches
Bianco P.	D'Angelo L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
18', Ciurria P. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', Lapadula G. 🟨,
53', 1 - 0, Ravanelli L. ⚽,
57', Vlahovic V. ↓, Di Serio G. ↑,
68', Mota D. ↓, Maric M. ↑,
68', Balde K. ↓, Caprari G. ↑,
75', Izzo A. 🟨,
76', Ciurria P. ↓, Galazzi N. ↑,
76', Colpani A. ↓, Birindelli S. ↑,
77', Cassata F. ↓, Soleri E. ↑,
77', Candela A. ↓, Kouda R. ↑,
79', Fellipe Jack 🟨,
84', Mateju A. ↓, Hristov P. ↑,
84', Vignali L. ↓, Candelari P. ↑,
86', Izzo A. 🟨,
88', Galazzi N. ↓, Delli Carri F. ↑,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 18 in the zone Relegation).

Monza is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Spezia has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Monza is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Monza: Alvarez A. (Injury) Antov V. (Knee Injury) Forson O. (Knee Injury) Petagna A. (Inactive)

There will not play in Spezia: Bandinelli F. (Broken Leg) Zurkowski S. (Injury)

There are questionable in Spezia: Artistico G. (Inactive) Cistana A. (Inactive) Comotto C. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Monza won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0. (average 2:0).

Including home match between the teams, Monza won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Monza 1912
Italian Serie B
28.10.25	Palermo - Monza	0:3 ✺
25.10.25	Monza - Reggiana	3:1 ✺
18.10.25	Frosinone - Monza	0:1 ✺
04.10.25	Monza - Catanzaro	2:1 ✺
01.10.25	Empoli - Monza	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 WWWWT
- Spezia Calcio
Italian Serie B
29.10.25	Spezia - Padova	1:1 ✺
25.10.25	Avellino - Spezia	0:4 ✺
18.10.25	Spezia - Cesena	1:2 ✺
04.10.25	Spezia - Palermo	1:2 ✺
30.09.25	Reggiana - Spezia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 TWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
28.04.23	Spezia - Monza	0:2
09.10.22	Monza - Spezia	2:0

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