Match Info

Serie B - Round 10

Date: 29 October 2025, Wednesday

Location: Stadio Alberto Picco (La Spezia)

Referee: Pezzuto I. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Spezia		Padova

	1	X	2
	1.81	3.05	4.75	Watch
	1.9	3.2	4.15	Watch
	1.82	3.32	4.26	Watch
	1.93	3.18	4.29	Watch
	1.93	3.25	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↑ (1.82)	3.2 ↓ (3.32)	4.35 ↑ (4.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Spezia
49.5%

Draw
29.1%

Padova
21.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.6%

27.8%

21.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.9%

30.2%

19.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Spezia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Padova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Spezia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Padova than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68.7%	18.7%	12.5%

Spezia - Padova Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Spezia will win (votes: 11 - 68.8%). Padova will win (votes: 2 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 18.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Spezia: 46.1% – 91.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Padova (2.21) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Spezia will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Spezia (votes: 3 - 60%). Padova (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sarr M. (G) 37. Mateju A. 2. Wisniewski P. 6. Fellipe Jack 31. Aurelio G. 32. Vignali L. (C) 5. Esposito Sa. 8. Nagy A. 11. Beruatto P. 10. Lapadula G. 20. Di Serio G.	14. Fortin M. (G) 4. Belli F. 32. Sgarbi F. 5. Perrotta M. 30. Favale G. 8. Fusi P. 6. Crisetig L. (C) 23. Di Maggio L. 3. Barreca A. 15. Lasagna K. 20. Bortolussi M.
Substitutes
23. Candela A. 36. Candelari P. 29. Cassata F. 55. Hristov P. 80. Kouda R. 77. Lorenzelli E. 16. Loria L. (G) 12. Mascardi D. (G) 27. Soleri E. 99. Vlahovic V.	92. Buonaiuto C. 17. Capelli A. 72. Faedo C. 18. Ghiglione P. 44. Harder J. 1. Mouquet L. (G) 58. Pastina C. 11. Seghetti A. 22. Sorrentino A. (G) 77. Tumiatti F. 7. Varas K. 55. Villa L.
Coaches
D'Angelo L.	Andreoletti M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', Belli F. 🟨,
17', 1 - 0, Lapadula G. ⚽, Di Serio G. (A),
30', Fusi P. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
55', Favale G. ↓, Varas K. ↑,
55', Fusi P. ↓, Capelli A. ↑,
59', Perrotta M. 🟨,
66', 1 - 1, Lasagna K. ⚽,
68', Crisetig L. ↓, Harder J. ↑,
68', Bortolussi M. ↓, Buonaiuto C. ↑,
71', Nagy A. 🟨,
75', Belli F. ↓, Faedo C. ↑,
76', Beruatto P. ↓, Candelari P. ↑,
80', Di Serio G. ↓, Soleri E. ↑,
81', Nagy A. ↓, Cassata F. ↑,
83', Barreca A. 🟨,
86', Esposito Sa. ↓, Kouda R. ↑,
86', Vignali L. ↓, Candela A. ↑,
90+4', Harder J. 🟨,
90+4', Varas K. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Spezia won 1.

Recent form of Spezia has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Padova has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Spezia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Spezia is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Spezia: Bandinelli F. (Broken Leg) Zurkowski S. (Injury)

There will not play in Padova: Baselli D. (Muscle Injury) Papu Gomez (Suspended) Pastina C. (Knock) Silva J. (Health problems)

There are questionable in Spezia: Artistico G. (Inactive) Comotto C. (Injury)

There are questionable in Padova: Fusi P. (Injury)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Spezia won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:10. (average 1.4:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Spezia won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 1.3:2.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Spezia - the odds 1.82 are the expected chance of winning is 50.62%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Spezia Calcio
Italian Serie B
25.10.25	Avellino - Spezia	0:4 ✺
18.10.25	Spezia - Cesena	1:2 ✺
04.10.25	Spezia - Palermo	1:2 ✺
30.09.25	Reggiana - Spezia	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Venezia - Spezia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WLLTL
- Calcio Padova
Italian Serie B
26.10.25	Padova - Juve Stabia	2:2 ✺
19.10.25	Catanzaro - Padova	0:1 ✺
04.10.25	Bari - Padova	2:1 ✺
30.09.25	Padova - Avellino	2:2 ✺
27.09.25	Monza - Padova	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.3 TWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
27.07.22	Padova - Spezia	1:5
Italian Serie B
09.03.19	Spezia - Padova	0:2
27.10.18	Padova - Spezia	0:0
05.04.14	Spezia - Padova	2:2
01.11.13	Padova - Spezia	1:0
11.05.13	Padova - Spezia	1:1
23.12.12	Spezia - Padova	2:3

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