Match Info

Date: 4 September 2022, Sunday

Location: Stadio Alberto Picco (La Spezia)

Referee: Giua A. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Australia	beIN Sports
Bulgaria	Ring
Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
Denmark	TV2 Sport X
France	beIN Sports
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hungary	Sport 2
Poland	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	Sport TV
Serbia	Arena Sport
Slovenia	Arena Sport
United-kingdom	BT Sport


	Spezia		Bologna

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.3	2.3	Watch
	3.2	3.3	2.25
	3.25	3.25	2.28	Watch
	3.2	3.2	2.3
	3.27	3.32	2.41
	3.3	3.2	2.25	Watch
	3.22	3.24	2.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.22 ↑ (3.08)	3.26 ↑ (3.19)	2.3 ↓ (2.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Spezia
29.5%

Draw
29.2%

Bologna
41.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.7%

29.7%

39.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.1%

30.3%

40.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Spezia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Bologna has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bologna than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.2%	49.4%	32.5%

Spezia - Bologna Predictions

Users Predictions: 77 users predict this event. Spezia will win (votes: 14 - 18.2%). Bologna will win (votes: 25 - 32.5%). It will Tie (votes: 38 - 49.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 38.2% – 60.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Spezia has the most likely position - 20 (13.54%), has project points - 36, has currently - 4, has a chance of relegated (38%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Bologna has the most likely position - 17 (9.1%), has project points - 41, has currently - 2, has a chance of relegated (23%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (2%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 50, importance 41, match rating 46. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Spezia won 1.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Bologna could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Spezia: Amian K. (Injury) Ferrer S. (Injury) Nguiamba A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Spezia: Maldini D. (Injury)

Last 8 head-to-head matches Spezia won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 11-13.

Including matches at home between the teams Spezia won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Spezia Calcio
Italian Serie A
31.08.22	Juventus - Spezia	2:0 ✺
27.08.22	Spezia - Sassuolo	2:2 ✺
20.08.22	Inter Milan - Spezia	3:0 ✺
14.08.22	Spezia - Empoli	1:0 ✺
Coppa Italia
06.08.22	Spezia - Como	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LTLWW
- Bologna FC
Italian Serie A
01.09.22	Bologna - Salernitana	1:1 ✺
27.08.22	Milan - Bologna	2:0 ✺
21.08.22	Bologna - Verona	1:1 ✺
14.08.22	Lazio - Bologna	2:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
08.08.22	Bologna - Nuova Cosenza	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 TLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
21.02.22	Bologna - Spezia	2:1
28.11.21	Spezia - Bologna	0:1
18.04.21	Bologna - Spezia	4:1
16.12.20	Spezia - Bologna	2:2
Coppa Italia
25.11.20	Bologna - Spezia	2:4 ET
Club Friendly
22.07.15	Bologna - Spezia	1:2
Italian Serie B
18.04.15	Bologna - Spezia	0:0

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