Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 4

Date: 3 September 2023, Sunday

Location: Stadio Alberto Picco (La Spezia)

Referee: Perenzoni D. (Ita)


	Spezia		Como

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.5	4.5	Watch
	1.75	3.4	4.9
	1.85	3.53	4.83
	1.67	3.2	4.75
	1.82	3.66	4.25	Watch
	1.82	3.5	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↑ (1.59)	3.47 ↓ (3.68)	4.59 ↓ (5.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Spezia
52.4%

Draw
27.1%

Como
20.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.6%

24.9%

17.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.4%

24.6%

17.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Spezia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Spezia's form might have worsened.

Como has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Spezia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Como than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	55.6%	0%

Spezia - Como Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Spezia will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 55.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
69. Dragowski B. (G) 33. Gelashvili I. 23. Muhl L. 43. Nikolaou D. (C) 27. Amian K. 25. Bandinelli F. 8. Ekdal A. 17. Zurkowski S. 4. Moutinho J. 9. Esposito F. 48. Antonucci M.	1. Semper A. (G) 5. Curto M. 26. Odenthal C. 93. Barba F. 44. Ioannou N. 6. Iovine A. 14. Bellemo A. (C) 94. Kone B. L. 33. Da Cunha L. 9. Gabrielloni A. 10. Cutrone P.
Substitutes
77. Bertola N. 29. Cassata F. 11. Cipot T. 7. Elia S. 10. Esposito Sa. 55. Hristov P. 80. Kouda R. 19. Krollis R. 15. Pietra N. 99. Verde D. 1. Zoet J. (G) 40. Zovko P. (G)	21. Arrigoni T. 8. Baselli D. 84. Cassandro T. 7. Chajia M. 20. Kerrigan L. 99. Mustapha S. 3. Sala M. 23. Scaglia F. 4. Solini M. 90. Verdi S. 80. Vignali L. 22. Vigorito M. (G)
Coaches
Alvini M.	Longo M.

Preview

Recent matches Spezia is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Como is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Como could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Spezia have a series of guest games.

In this match Spezia is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Spezia won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Spezia won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Spezia Calcio
Italian Serie B
30.08.23	Catanzaro - Spezia	3:0 ✺
20.08.23	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Spezia	3:3 ✺
Coppa Italia
14.08.23	Spezia - Venezia	3:2 penalties ✺
Club Friendly
06.08.23	Mallorca - Spezia	1:1 ✺
02.08.23	Wolfsburg - Spezia	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.3 LTWTW
- Calcio Como
Italian Serie B
26.08.23	Como - Reggiana	2:2 ✺
20.08.23	Venezia - Como	3:0 ✺
Coppa Italia
13.08.23	Lecce - Como	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
02.08.23	Cagliari - Como	2:1 ✺
28.07.23	Como - Pro Patria	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 TLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Coppa Italia
06.08.22	Spezia - Como	5:1
Italian Serie B
15.05.16	Como - Spezia	4:0
23.12.15	Spezia - Como	1:1

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