Match Info

Serie B - Round 36

Date: 1 May 2025, Thursday

Location: Stadio Alberto Picco (La Spezia)

Referee: Fourneau F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia


	Spezia		Salernitana

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.1	5.25	Watch
	1.8	3.3	4.75
	1.73	3.45	5	Watch
	1.75	3.45	5.72
	1.75	3.33	5.22	Watch
	2	3.3	3.75
	1.75	3.26	5.52	Watch
	1.73	3.45	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↑ (1.64)	3.33 ↓ (3.85)	5.03 ↓ (5.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Spezia
53.1%

Draw
28.2%

Salernitana
18.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.1%

24.3%

18.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.7%

23.6%

18%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Spezia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Salernitana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Spezia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Salernitana than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.9%	0%	23.1%

Spezia - Salernitana Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Spezia (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Spezia will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
66. Gori S. (G) 2. Wisniewski P. 55. Hristov P. 77. Bertola N. 37. Mateju A. 80. Kouda R. 5. Esposito Sa. 25. Bandinelli F. 31. Aurelio G. 11. Falcinelli D. 9. Esposito F.	53. Christensen O. (G) 13. Ruggeri F. 33. Ferrari G. M. 47. Lochoshvili L. 29. Ghiglione P. 30. Stojanovic P. 73. Amatucci L. 16. Corazza T. 8. Hrustic A. 7. Tongya F. 90. Cerri A.
Substitutes
36. Candelari P. 29. Cassata F. 23. Chichizola L. (G) 17. Colak A. 20. Di Serio G. 82. Djankpata H. 7. Elia S. 4. Ferrer S. 65. Giorgeschi S. 10. Lapadula G. 8. Nagy A. 32. Vignali L.	18. Caligara F. 27. Guasone J. 44. Jaroszynski P. 17. Njoh L. 99. Raimondo A. 19. Reine-Adelaide J. 55. Sepe L. (G) 9. Simy 21. Soriano R. 70. Tello A. 31. Verde D. 98. Zuccon F.
Coaches
D'Angelo L.	Marino P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', 1 - 0, Kouda R. ⚽, Mateju A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', Hrustic A. 🟨,
62', Cerri A. ↓, Simy ↑,
62', Ruggeri F. ↓, Verde D. ↑,
63', Falcinelli D. ↓, Colak A. ↑,
63', Kouda R. ↓, Cassata F. ↑,
76', Stojanovic P. ↓, Soriano R. ↑,
76', Mateju A. ↓, Vignali L. ↑,
76', Bandinelli F. ↓, Nagy A. ↑,
79', 2 - 0, Vignali L. ⚽,
84', Corazza T. 🟨,
86', Tongya F. ↓, Jaroszynski P. ↑,
86', Lochoshvili L. ↓, Njoh L. ↑,
88', Esposito F. ↓, Lapadula G. ↑,

Preview

During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches Spezia won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Spezia is a favorite.

There will not play in Spezia: Degli Innocenti D. (Injury) Sarr M. (Shoulder Injury) Soleri E. (Injury)

There will not play in Salernitana: Bronn D. (Injury) Zuccon F. (Inactive)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Spezia won 9 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 27:18 (average 1.6:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams, Spezia won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 16:6 (average 2:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Spezia Calcio
Italian Serie B
25.04.25	Frosinone - Spezia	2:2 ✺
13.04.25	Mantova - Spezia	2:2 ✺
06.04.25	Spezia - Sampdoria	2:0 ✺
28.03.25	Spezia - Brescia	0:1 ✺
15.03.25	Cesena - Spezia	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 TTWLT
- US Salernitana 1919
Italian Serie B
25.04.25	Salernitana - Nuova Cosenza	3:1 ✺
12.04.25	Salernitana - Südtirol-Alto Adige	2:1 ✺
05.04.25	Juve Stabia - Salernitana	1:0 ✺
30.03.25	Salernitana - Palermo	1:2 ✺
15.03.25	Bari - Salernitana	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
19.10.24	Salernitana - Spezia	0:2
Coppa Italia
12.08.24	Salernitana - Spezia	4:3 penalties
Italian Serie A
02.04.23	Spezia - Salernitana	1:1
22.10.22	Salernitana - Spezia	1:0
07.02.22	Salernitana - Spezia	2:2
16.10.21	Spezia - Salernitana	2:1
Italian Serie B
31.07.20	Salernitana - Spezia	1:2

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