The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Universitario de Deportes 50.8%
Draw 30.2%
FBC Melgar 19%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
51.5%
30.3%
18.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
52.6%
29.7%
17.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Universitario de Deportes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)
FBC Melgar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universitario de Deportes than the current prediction. (+1.8%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (-1.2%)
Universitario de Deportes - FBC Melgar Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Romero D. (G) 4. Santamaria A. 3. Riveros W. 2. Fara C. 23. Murrugarra J. 24. Polo A. (C) 10. Calcaterra H. 17. Concha J. 33. Inga C. 18. Lapadula G. 20. Valera A.
21. Cabezudo J. (G) 33. Lazo M. 23. Escobar J. 3. Gonzalez L. 27. Cabanillas N. 25. Minda K. 24. Tandazo W. 7. Bordacahar C. 10. Quagliata N. 8. Guzman L. 9. Cuesta B. (C)
Substitutes
30. Alzugaray L. 29. Corzo A. 8. Fertoli H. 19. Flores E. 39. Quispe Cordova P. A. 15. Requena J. 77. Reyna B. 11. Rivera J. 25. Vargas M. (G)
12. Caceda C. (G) 16. Caceres J. 80. D'Arrigo J. 5. Deneumostier A. 90. Jesus Alcantar 36. Nunez P. 11. Vidales J. 77. Zanelatto F. 45. Zegarra M.
Coaches
Bustos F.
Rondelli M.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
16', Fara C. 🟨,
20', Escobar J. 🟨,
39', 0 - 1, Cuesta B. ⚽, Quagliata N. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Murrugarra J. ↓, Quispe Cordova P. A. ↑,
56', 0 - 2, Bordacahar C. ⚽,
61', Tandazo W. 🟨,
66', Lapadula G. ↓, Alzugaray L. ↑,
67', Fara C. ↓, Flores E. ↑,
70', Guzman L. ↓, Vidales J. ↑,
70', Cuesta B. ↓, Zegarra M. ↑,
77', Cabanillas N. ↓, Jesus Alcantar ↑,
82', Concha J. ↓, Rivera J. ↑,
84', 1 - 2, Valera A. ⚽, Calcaterra H. (A),
86', Zegarra M. 🟨,
86', 2 - 2, Valera A. ⚽, Flores E. (A),
90+2', Calcaterra H. ↓, Requena J. ↑,
Preview
This match features a clash between a top-table contender and a mid-table team (ranked 3rd and 7th).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Uni de Deportes won 3.
Uni de Deportes is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Melgar has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
Bookmakers give the edge to Uni de Deportes for this game.
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Uni de Deportes has recorded 9 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 27:24 (averaging 1.4:1.2 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Uni de Deportes against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss, with 15:8 goals (averaging 1.7:0.9 per game).