Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 24

Date: 21 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho (Recife)

Referee: Sampaio S. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Mexico	Fanatiz
Portugal	Canal 11
Turkey	Spor Smart 2
Usa	Fanatiz


	Sport Recife		Corinthians

	1	X	2
	2.9	3	2.63	Watch
	2.92	2.92	2.58
	3.05	3.1	2.69
	3.42	2.19	3.17	Watch
	3.02	3.08	2.59	Watch
	2.8	2.9	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.02 ↑ (2.77)	2.87 ↓ (2.99)	2.74 ↑ (2.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sport Recife
31.7%

Draw
33.4%

Corinthians
34.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.9%

31.3%

34.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.2%

30.7%

35.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sport Recife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Corinthians has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	44.4%	33.3%

Sport Recife - Corinthians Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Recife will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Corinthians will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Corinthians (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Corinthians (1.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Corinthians (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Corinthians (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gabriel (G) 36. Luan Candido 15. Rafael Thyere (C) 40. Ramon Menezes 13. Aderlan 17. Matheusinho 14. Rivera C. 19. Hyoran 58. Ze Lucas 18. Derik Lacerda 38. Leo Pereira	1. Hugo Souza (G) 5. Andre Ramalho 13. Gustavo Henrique 26. Angileri F. 2. Matheuzinho 27. Breno Bidon 70. Martinez J. 7. Maycon (C) 21. Matheus Bidu 9. Yuri Alberto 29. Vitinho
Substitutes
20. Atencio R. 22. Caique Franca (G) 30. Chrystian Barletta 55. Hugo V. (G) 16. Igor Carius 21. Lucas Kal 33. Matheus Alexandre 92. Pablo 7. Paciencia G. 9. Ramirez I. 11. Romarinho 6. Silva J.	11. Angel Romero 25. Caca 49. Carrillo A. 61. Dieguinho 40. Felipe Longo (G) 46. Hugo 47. Joao Pedro 31. Kayke 14. Raniele 37. Ryan 43. Talles Magno 3. Torres F.
Coaches
Daniel Paulista	Dorival Junior

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
6', Ramon Menezes 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
49', 1 - 0, Matheusinho ⚽,
61', Matheusinho 🟨,
64', Angileri F. ↓, Raniele ↑,
64', Martinez J. ↓, Talles Magno ↑,
69', Matheusinho ↓, Chrystian Barletta ↑,
70', Hyoran ↓, Atencio R. ↑,
78', Gabriel 🟨,
78', Vitinho ↓, Angel Romero ↑,
78', Maycon ↓, Dieguinho ↑,
84', Aderlan ↓, Matheus Alexandre ↑,
85', Leo Pereira ↓, Igor Carius ↑,
85', Matheuzinho ↓, Hugo ↑,
90+2', Derik Lacerda 🟨,
90+3', Matheus Bidu 🟨,
90+7', Chrystian Barletta 🟨,
90+8', Ze Lucas 🟨,
90+8', Ze Lucas ↓, Lucas Kal ↑,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Recife won 2.

Recife has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Corinthians is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Corinthians may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Recife: Denis (Knee Injury) Hereda (Health problems) Igor Carius (Calf Injury) Lucas Lima (Yellow Cards) Oliveira S. (Ankle Injury) Pedro Augusto (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Corinthians: Charles Rigon (Knee Injury) Depay M. (Muscle Injury) Gui Negao (Yellow Cards) Martinez J. (Ankle Injury) Raniele (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Recife: Matheus Alexandre (Health problems) Pablo (Illness)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Recife won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 15:33. (average 0.9:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Recife won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:8. (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sport Recife
Brazilian Serie A
14.09.25	Red Bull Bragantino - Sport Recife	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	Sport Recife - Vasco da Gama	2:3 ✺
25.08.25	Palmeiras - Sport Recife	3:0 ✺
16.08.25	Sport Recife - São Paulo	2:2 ✺
10.08.25	Grêmio - Sport Recife	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 TLLTW
- Corinthians
Brazilian Serie A
13.09.25	Fluminense - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
10.09.25	Corinthians - Athletico Paranaense	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
31.08.25	Corinthians - Palmeiras	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
27.08.25	Athletico Paranaense - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
24.08.25	Vasco da Gama - Corinthians	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.3 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
19.04.25	Corinthians - Sport Recife	2:1
09.10.21	Sport Recife - Corinthians	1:0
24.06.21	Corinthians - Sport Recife	2:1
21.01.21	Corinthians - Sport Recife	3:0
23.09.20	Sport Recife - Corinthians	1:0
16.09.18	Corinthians - Sport Recife	2:1
20.05.18	Sport Recife - Corinthians	1:1

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