Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 21

Date: 25 August 2025, Monday

Location: Allianz Parque (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Zanovelli P. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Israel	Sport 3
Mexico	Fanatiz
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV
Usa	Fanatiz


	Palmeiras		Sport Recife

	1	X	2
	1.3	5	9.5	Watch
	1.34	4.8	10
	1.29	5.4	9.8
	1.32	5.57	10.49
	1.36	4.57	8.92	Watch
	1.33	4.5	10
	1.34	5.16	9.9	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↓ (1.38)	5 ↑ (4.63)	9.8 ↑ (8.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Palmeiras
71.4%

Draw
18.9%

Sport Recife
9.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.4%

20.3%

11.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.8%

19.3%

10.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Sport Recife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.4%	11.8%	5.9%

Palmeiras - Sport Recife Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 8 - 66.7%). Recife (votes: 1 - 8.3%). Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Palmeiras (1.12) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Palmeiras will win (13 of 16 users predict this - 81.25%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.12% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 9 - 69.2%). Recife (votes: 1 - 7.7%). Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Weverton (G) 12. Khellven 15. Gomez G. (C) 26. Murilo 22. Piquerez J. 32. Martinez E. 30. Lucas Evangelista 7. Felipe Anderson 18. Mauricio 9. Vitor Roque 42. Lopez J.	1. Gabriel (G) 33. Matheus Alexandre 15. Rafael Thyere (C) 40. Ramon Menezes 3. Kevyson 14. Rivera C. 58. Ze Lucas 10. Lucas Lima 17. Matheusinho 92. Pablo 38. Leo Pereira
Substitutes
40. Allan 3. Bruno Fuchs 1. Carlos Miguel (G) 4. Giay A. 6. Jefte 31. Luighi 14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 13. Micael 19. Sosa R. 39. Thalys 17. Torres F.	13. Aderlan 22. Caique Franca (G) 30. Chrystian Barletta 55. Hugo V. (G) 19. Hyoran 21. Lucas Kal 28. Pedro Augusto 9. Ramirez I. 46. Riquelme 11. Romarinho 6. Silva J.
Coaches
Abel Ferreira	Daniel Paulista

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', 1 - 0, Lopez J. ⚽, Vitor Roque (A),
21', Kevyson 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
56', 2 - 0, Lopez J. ⚽,
59', 3 - 0, Gomez G. ⚽, Mauricio (A),
60', Kevyson ↓, Aderlan ↑,
60', Pablo ↓, Ramirez I. ↑,
60', Ze Lucas ↓, Pedro Augusto ↑,
68', Felipe Anderson ↓, Sosa R. ↑,
68', Mauricio ↓, Torres F. ↑,
82', Lucas Lima ↓, Romarinho ↑,
84', Lucas Evangelista ↓, Allan ↑,
84', Khellven ↓, Giay A. ↑,
85', Pedro Augusto 🟨,
90+2', Piquerez J. ↓, Jefte ↑,
90+2', Leo Pereira ↓, Chrystian Barletta ↑,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 4.

Palmeiras is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Recife's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recife may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Palmeiras is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Palmeiras: Bruno Rodrigues (Knee Injury) Carlos Miguel (Inactive) Moreno A. (Yellow Cards) Paulinho (Leg Injury) Raphael Veiga (Inactive)

There will not play in Recife: Denis (Knee Injury) Derik Lacerda (Yellow Cards) Hereda (Health problems) Oliveira S. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Recife: Ze Roberto (Knee Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 11 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 32:23. (average 1.7:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Palmeiras won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 18:14. (average 2:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Palmeiras
Copa Libertadores
21.08.25	Palmeiras - Universitario de Deportes	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
17.08.25	Botafogo RJ - Palmeiras	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.08.25	Universitario de Deportes - Palmeiras	0:4 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.08.25	Palmeiras - Ceará	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
06.08.25	Palmeiras - Corinthians	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TWWWL
- Sport Recife
Brazilian Serie A
16.08.25	Sport Recife - São Paulo	2:2 ✺
10.08.25	Grêmio - Sport Recife	0:1 ✺
02.08.25	Sport Recife - Bahia	0:0 ✺
26.07.25	Sport Recife - Santos	2:2 ✺
23.07.25	Vitória Salvador - Sport Recife	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.9 TWTTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
06.04.25	Sport Recife - Palmeiras	1:2
25.10.21	Palmeiras - Sport Recife	2:1
04.07.21	Sport Recife - Palmeiras	0:1
09.01.21	Sport Recife - Palmeiras	0:1
13.09.20	Palmeiras - Sport Recife	2:2
23.09.18	Sport Recife - Palmeiras	0:1
26.05.18	Palmeiras - Sport Recife	2:3

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