Match Info

Serie B - Round 31

Date: 1 October 2026, Thursday

Location: Estádio Joaquim Portugal (Minas Gerais)

Referee: Vitor Gobi J. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Athletic Club		Sport Recife

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.10	3.00	Watch
	2.35	3.10	2.85
	2.35	3.15	3.05	Watch
	2.51	3.30	3.00
	2.25	3.14	3.32	Watch
	2.20	3.15	3.45
	2.27	3.46	3.12	Watch
	2.44	3.10	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↓ (2.4)	3.19 ↓ (3.2)	3.08 ↑ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Club
40%

Draw
29.5%

Sport Recife
30.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.8%

29.1%

32.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

29%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Club has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Sport Recife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	66.7%	11.1%

Athletic Club - Sport Recife Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Athletic will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Recife will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Luan Polli (G) 3. Jhonatan Silva 2. Douglas Pele 4. Belezi (C) 11. Max 14. Yago Santos 16. Joao Miguel 23. Enzo Santos 18. Pedro Oliveira 10. Kauan Lindes 17. Kauan Rodrigues	26. Thiago Couto (G) 27. Claudinho 5. Benevenuto (C) 3. Marcelo Ajul 76. Rai 6. Biel Fonseca 29. Willian Oliveira 30. Chrystian Barletta 8. Juan Alano 31. Marlon Douglas 19. Neto Pessoa
Substitutes
20. Aponza W. 13. Assis 7. Bruninho 8. Cabezas G. 22. Diogo Batista 5. Felipe Negrucci 15. Jota 6. Marcelo Henrique 19. Pool J. 12. Tony (G) 21. Vera D. 9. Yarlen	80. Andrade K. 21. Brenno (G) 25. Clayson 10. de Pena Carlos 77. Dudu 96. Edson Lucas 28. Habraao 40. Matheus Baraka 7. Patrick de Paula 9. Pedro Perotti 23. Ze Gabriel
Coaches
Alex Souza	Soso M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
14', 0 - 1, Neto Pessoa ⚽, Juan Alano (A),
20', Marlon Douglas ↓, de Pena Carlos ↑,
24', 1 - 1, Kauan Rodrigues ⚽, Yago Santos (A),
26', Max 🟨,
34', 1 - 2, de Pena Carlos ⚽, Claudinho (A),
42', Pedro Oliveira ↓, Aponza W. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Juan Alano ↓, Patrick de Paula ↑,
59', Yago Santos ↓, Yarlen ↑,
65', Biel Fonseca 🟨,
65', de Pena Carlos 🟨,
70', Biel Fonseca ↓, Ze Gabriel ↑,
70', Neto Pessoa ↓, Pedro Perotti ↑,
73', Kauan Lindes 🟨,
73', Joao Miguel ↓, Felipe Negrucci ↑,
73', Douglas Pele ↓, Vera D. ↑,
73', Enzo Santos ↓, Bruninho ↑,
90+4', de Pena Carlos ↓, Edson Lucas ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table squads battle for vital points to solidify their season (ranked 13th and 9th).

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Athletic has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 4:2 (averaging 2:1 goals per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Sport Recife	32	13	11	8	44:34	10	50
14	Athletic Club	32	10	12	10	38:37	1	42

Last Results with these Odds

Athletic Club - the odds 2.4 are the expected chance of winning is 38.8%, but this team recently wins 9% of matches with these odds.

Sport Recife - the odds 2.9 are the expected chance of winning is 32.11%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Club MG
Brazilian Serie B
27.09.26	Fortaleza - Athletic Club	2:2 ✺
19.09.26	Athletic Club - Botafogo SP	1:1 ✺
13.09.26	Juventude - Athletic Club	0:2 ✺
08.09.26	Cuiabá - Athletic Club	3:0 ✺
04.09.26	Athletic Club - Vila Nova	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20 TTWLW
- Sport Recife
Brazilian Serie B
26.09.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Sport Recife	3:1 ✺
19.09.26	Sport Recife - Juventude	2:1 ✺
15.09.26	CRB Maceio - Sport Recife	2:1 ✺
10.09.26	Sport Recife - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
05.09.26	Ceará - Sport Recife	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
10.06.26	Sport Recife - Athletic Club	1:1
Copa do Brasil
17.03.26	Sport Recife - Athletic Club	1:3

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