Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 21 October 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Hodges Stadium (Jacksonville, FL) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	20:30	Disney+
Brazil	20:30	Disney+
Chile	20:30	Disney+
Colombia	18:30	Disney+
Mexico	17:30	Disney+
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	18:30	Disney+
Uruguay	20:30	Disney+
Usa	19:30	CBS Sports Golazo, Paramount+
Venezuela	19:30	Disney+


	Sporting Jacksonville		Louisville City

	1	X	2
				Watch
	7.25	5.50	1.27
	6.00	4.50	1.36
	8.54	6.14	1.29
	7.8	5.6	1.31	Watch
	7.85	5.95	1.28
	8.51	5.96	1.28	Watch
	8.00	5.60	1.27
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.71 ↑ (4.9)	5.61 ↑ (4.1)	1.29 ↓ (1.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Sporting Jacksonville
12%

Draw
16.5%

Louisville City
71.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

18.3%

21.9%

59.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.9%

21.4%

61.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sporting Jacksonville has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sporting Jacksonville's form might have worsened.

Louisville City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Louisville City's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sporting Jacksonville than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sporting Jacksonville, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Louisville City than the current prediction. (-10.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Louisville City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Sporting Jacksonville - Louisville City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. McGuire J. (G) 12. Rito E. 22. Gomez A. 15. Edwards R. (C) 13. Alvarado V. 6. Rossiter J. 44. Somersall R. 2. Neville H. 24. Roberts T. 9. Luckhurst A. 11. Al Qaq A.	29. Schewe R. (G) 2. McFadden A. 31. Lambert K. 32. Adams K. (C) 15. Perez E. 8. Davila T. 19. Niang B. 13. Dia A. 47. Akale M. 9. Donovan C. 7. Serrano R.
Substitutes
18. Ackwei W. 42. Casas E. (G) 16. Jaaskelainen E. 14. Jean Mota 8. Kuzain W. 10. Sadlier K. 28. Underwood E. 27. Wilson D.	99. Conley C. 27. Davila E. 5. Dayes B. 6. Duncan Z. 23. Gleadle S. 21. Huerman Q. 3. Morris J. 4. Totsch S. 30. Troutman R. (G)
Coaches
Fox L.	Bird S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
6', Niang B. 🟨,
42', Akale M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Niang B. ↓, Duncan Z. ↑,
46', Akale M. ↓, Huerman Q. ↑,
51', Gomez A. 🟨,
58', Dia A. ↓, Morris J. ↑,
64', Somersall R. ↓, Jean Mota ↑,
69', Luckhurst A. ↓, Jaaskelainen E. ↑,
77', 0 - 1, Jaaskelainen E. (Own goal),
81', Roberts T. ↓, Kuzain W. ↑,
81', Al Qaq A. ↓, Sadlier K. ↑,
84', Donovan C. ↓, Gleadle S. ↑,
85', 0 - 2, Duncan Z. ⚽,
88', Perez E. ↓, Totsch S. ↑,
90+1', Morris J. 🟨,
90+3', Edwards R. 🟨,

Preview

Louisville City is Qualified for USL Championship (Play Offs 1/8~finals).

Sporting Jax has struggled for results with multiple recent losses (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Louisville City is on a roll with consecutive victories (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Sporting Jax could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, Louisville City enters as the overwhelming favorite.

Our forecast points to a victory for Louisville City in today's match, at odds of 1.37.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Sporting Jax has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 0:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Louisville City - the odds 1.5 are the expected chance of winning is 59.81%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Jacksonville
USL Championship
14.10.26	Sporting Jacksonville - Birmingham Legion	0:1 ✺
30.09.26	Miami - Sporting Jacksonville	4:1 ✺
25.09.26	Sporting Jacksonville - Loudoun United	1:4 ✺
16.09.26	Hartford Athletic - Sporting Jacksonville	2:0 ✺
12.09.26	Sporting Jacksonville - Rhode Island	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Louisville City FC
USL Championship
17.10.26	Louisville City - Indy Eleven	4:1 ✺
10.10.26	Charleston Battery - Louisville City	0:2 ✺
USL Cup
04.10.26	Hartford Athletic - Louisville City	0:1 ✺
USL Championship
25.09.26	Hartford Athletic - Louisville City	2:2 ✺
19.09.26	Louisville City - Loudoun United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
18.04.26	Louisville City - Sporting Jacksonville	1:0

Upcoming Matches