Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 2

Date: 1 October 2025, Wednesday

Location: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona (Naples)

Referee: Makkelie D. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Maximo 360
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 4
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 7
Belgium	Pickx+ Sports 4, Pickx+ Sports 4, Play Sports 7, Play Sports 7
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	HBO Max
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Denmark	See, Viaplay
Europe	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+
France	Canal+ Live 6
Georgia	Silk Sport 3
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 5
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	Viaplay
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 252, Sky Sport 4K, Sky Sport Uno
Laos	beIN Connect
Macao	TDM TV
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Malta	TSN Malta 7
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, HBO Max
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 3
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Norway	TV2 Play
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Canal+ Extra 6
Portugal	DAZN / App, Sport TV5
Romania	Prima Sport PPV 2
Russia	Okko Sport
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	Voyo
South-america	ESPN 4 South, Space Latin America, ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Now
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 7
Sweden	Viaplay
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	Tabii
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 8, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 5, TNT Sports Extra
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	ON Plus


	Napoli		Sporting Lisbon

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.5	4.2
	2.15	3.5	3.55
	1.94	3.58	4.3
	1.26	4.87	16.21	Watch
	2.11	3.53	3.87
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↑ (1.85)	3.8 ↑ (3.72)	6.43 ↑ (4.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Napoli
56%

Draw
27.6%

Sporting Lisbon
16.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.6%

25.7%

22.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6%

25.2%

22.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Napoli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Sporting Lisbon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sporting Lisbon might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Napoli than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sporting Lisbon than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sporting Lisbon could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80.3%	11.3%	8.5%

Napoli - Sporting Lisbon Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Napoli (2.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Sporting (1.95) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Napoli (1.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.75, 1st Half - Napoli (1.24) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Napoli (2.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Napoli will win (56 of 70 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.63% – 89.37%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Napoli will win (28 of 37 users predict this - 75.68%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 45 Selected Experts predict this event. Napoli (votes: 33 - 73.3%). Sporting (votes: 6 - 13.3%). Tie (votes: 6 - 13.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Milinkovic-Savic V. (G) 37. Spinazzola L. 31. Beukema S. 5. Juan Jesus 3. Gutierrez M. 68. Lobotka S. 21. Politano M. (C) 99. Anguissa F. 11. De Bruyne K. 8. McTominay S. 19. Hojlund R.	1. Silva R. (G) 22. Fresneda I. 72. Quaresma E. 25. Inacio G. 20. Araujo M. 42. Hjulmand M. (C) 52. Simoes J. 7. Quenda G. 17. Trincao 10. Catamo G. 89. Ioannidis F.
Substitutes
69. Ambrosino G. 7. David Neres 20. Elmas E. 25. Ferrante M. (G) 6. Gilmour B. 70. Lang N. 27. Lucca L. 1. Meret A. (G) 17. Olivera M. 26. Vergara A.	27. Alisson Santos 6. Debast Z. 26. Diomande O. 8. Goncalves P. 14. Kochorashvili G. 91. Mangas R. 2. Matheus Reis 5. Morita H. 28. Ribeiro R. 97. Suarez L. 13. Vagiannidis G. 12. Virginia J. (G)
Coaches
Conte A.	Borges R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
36', 1 - 0, Hojlund R. ⚽, De Bruyne K. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Trincao ↓, Goncalves P. ↑,
46', Catamo G. ↓, Suarez L. ↑,
62', 1 - 1, Suarez L. (Pen),
67', Quaresma E. ↓, Debast Z. ↑,
67', Ioannidis F. ↓, Alisson Santos ↑,
69', Politano M. ↓, David Neres ↑,
69', McTominay S. ↓, Lang N. ↑,
78', Simoes J. ↓, Morita H. ↑,
79', 2 - 1, Hojlund R. ⚽, De Bruyne K. (A),
81', Gutierrez M. ↓, Olivera M. ↑,
81', De Bruyne K. ↓, Gilmour B. ↑,
90', Hojlund R. ↓, Lucca L. ↑,

Preview

Napoli has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Sporting is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Sporting may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Napoli is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Napoli: Buongiorno A. (Thigh Injury) Contini N. (Hand Injury) Di Lorenzo G. (Red Card) Lukaku R. (Thigh Injury) Rrahmani A. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Sporting: Braganca D. (Knee Injury) Santos N. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Sporting: Diomande O. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Napoli won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SSC Napoli
Italian Serie A
28.09.25	Milan - Napoli	2:1 ✺
22.09.25	Napoli - Pisa	3:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.09.25	Manchester City - Napoli	2:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
13.09.25	Fiorentina - Napoli	1:3 ✺
30.08.25	Napoli - Cagliari	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWLWW
- Sporting Lisbon
Liga Portugal
27.09.25	Estoril Praia - Sporting Lisbon	0:1 ✺
22.09.25	Sporting Lisbon - Moreirense	3:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.09.25	Sporting Lisbon - Kairat	4:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
13.09.25	Famalicão - Sporting Lisbon	1:2 ✺
30.08.25	Sporting Lisbon - Porto	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
13.09.20	Sporting Lisbon - Napoli	Canceled

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