Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 22

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio José Alvalade (Lisbon)

Referee: Silva D. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Albania	Tring Sport 2
Belarus	Sport TV
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Denmark	Bold+, Sport Live
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 9
Hungary	Sport 2
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Sport+
Lithuania	Sport 1
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 5
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Poland	Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	TV Start
Serbia	Arena Premium 5, Arena Sport 3
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
Slovenia	SportKlub 3
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
Uruguay	Antel TV
World	Onefootball


	Sporting Lisbon		Famalicão

	1	X	2
	1.3	4.75	9.5	Watch
	1.32	4.95	9.3	Watch
	1.32	5.45	10.02
	1.34	5.16	9.36	Watch
	1.3	5	9
	1.31	5.84	10.1	Watch
	1.3	5	10
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.31 ↓ (1.37)	5.16 ↑ (5)	9.61 ↑ (7.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sporting Lisbon
71.9%

Draw
18.3%

Famalicão
9.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.1%

18.9%

12%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.5%

18%

11.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sporting Lisbon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Famalicão has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sporting Lisbon than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Famalicão than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
96%	4%	0%

Sporting Lisbon - Famalicão Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

DC - Sporting (1.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Famalicão (1.84) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Sporting Lisbon will win (24 of 25 users predict this - 96%).
Confidence interval (95%): 88.32% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sporting Lisbon will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Sporting (votes: 6 - 75%). Famalicão (votes: 2 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Silva R. (G) 22. Fresneda I. 26. Diomande O. 25. Inacio G. 91. Mangas R. 42. Hjulmand M. (C) 5. Morita H. 31. Luis Guilherme 17. Trincao 20. Araujo M. 8. Goncalves P.	25. Carevic L. (G) 2. Garcia 55. Ba I. 16. De Haas J. 28. Pedro Bondo 6. Van de Looi T. 23. Gil Dias 80. Santos P. 20. Sa G. (C) 7. Sorriso 12. Elisor S.
Substitutes
23. Braganca D. 10. Catamo G. 15. Faye S. 58. Goncalves F. 90. Nel R. 72. Quaresma E. 52. Simoes J. 13. Vagiannidis G. 12. Virginia J. (G)	91. Almeida R. 18. Beney R. 77. Joujou A. 15. Mamageishvili O. 47. Pastor G. 8. Pena M. 5. Rafa Soares 3. Realpe L. 1. Zlobin I. (G)
Coaches
Borges R.	Oliveira H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+4', Goncalves P. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', Santos P. 🟨,
62', Mangas R. ↓, Catamo G. ↑,
64', Santos P. ↓, Pastor G. ↑,
64', Gil Dias ↓, Joujou A. ↑,
76', Fresneda I. ↓, Nel R. ↑,
76', Morita H. ↓, Braganca D. ↑,
77', Elisor S. ↓, Almeida R. ↑,
82', 1 - 0, Braganca D. ⚽, Trincao (A),
86', Luis Guilherme ↓, Vagiannidis G. ↑,
86', Goncalves P. ↓, Simoes J. ↑,
86', Sa G. ↓, Pena M. ↑,
86', Sorriso ↓, Beney R. ↑,
90', Pastor G. 🟨,
90', Araujo M. 🟨,
90+2', Vagiannidis G. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sporting won 5.

Sporting has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Famalicão has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Sporting may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Sporting is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Sporting: Debast Z. (Injury) Ioannidis F. (Knee Injury) Quenda G. (Foot Injury) Suarez L. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Famalicão: Aranda O. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Famalicão: Beney R. (Inactive) Pinheiro R. (Inactive) Rochinha (Inactive)

We predict that Sporting will win today's game, with odds of 1.3.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Sporting won 12 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 31:14. (average 1.8:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Sporting won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 18:6. (average 2:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Sporting CP	8	5	3	0	20:9	11	18
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	9:7	2	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Lisbon
Liga Portugal
09.02.26	Porto - Sporting Lisbon	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
05.02.26	Sporting Lisbon - AVS	3:2 ET ✺
Liga Portugal
01.02.26	Sporting Lisbon - Nacional	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
28.01.26	Athletic Bilbao - Sporting Lisbon	2:3 ✺
Liga Portugal
24.01.26	Arouca - Sporting Lisbon	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 TWWWW
- FC Famalicão
Liga Portugal
09.02.26	Famalicão - AVS	3:1 ✺
01.02.26	Gil Vicente - Famalicão	5:0 ✺
25.01.26	Famalicão - Tondela	3:0 ✺
18.01.26	Santa Clara - Famalicão	0:1 ✺
04.01.26	Alverca - Famalicão	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
13.09.25	Famalicão - Sporting Lisbon	1:2
15.03.25	Sporting Lisbon - Famalicão	3:1
26.10.24	Famalicão - Sporting Lisbon	0:3
16.04.24	Famalicão - Sporting Lisbon	0:1
27.08.23	Sporting Lisbon - Famalicão	1:0
30.04.23	Sporting Lisbon - Famalicão	2:1
13.11.22	Famalicão - Sporting Lisbon	1:2

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