Match Info

Taça de Portugal - Semi-finals

Date: 22 April 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estádio do Dragão (Porto)

Referee: Nogueira M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	RTP Africa, RTP Africa, RTP Africa, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Arena, ZAP
Argentina	FOX Sports
Austria	Laola1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Brazil	Claro TV+, N Sports, Sky+, Vivo Play
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
China	ZhiBo8
Colombia	Win play, Win Sports
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	Laola1
Hungary	Sport 2
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	Como TV
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Poland	TVP Sport app, TVP Sport
Portugal	RTP 1, RTPi, RTP International, Sport TV1
Serbia	Arena Sport 5
Slovakia	JOJ Play, JOJ Sport
Switzerland	LAOLA1
Ukraine	Maincast Sport
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
World	Triller TV+


	Porto		Sporting Lisbon

	1	X	2
	2.25	3	3.4	Watch
	2.28	3.05	3.25
	2.33	3.15	3.47
	2.31	3.15	3.38	Watch
	2.2	2.8	3.1
	2.34	3.12	3.53
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↑ (2.05)	3.05 ↓ (3.16)	3.36 ↓ (3.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Porto
41.1%

Draw
30.9%

Sporting Lisbon
28%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46%

29.9%

24.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.6%

29.5%

23.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Porto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Sporting Lisbon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Porto than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Porto, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting Lisbon than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	18.7%	18.7%

Porto - Sporting Lisbon Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Porto will win (votes: 10 - 62.5%). Sporting will win (votes: 3 - 18.8%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 18.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Porto: 38.8% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Porto (votes: 1 - 50%). Sporting (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Costa D. (C) 20. Costa A. 5. Bednarek J. 3. Thiago Silva 4. Kiwior J. 8. Froholdt V. 13. Rosario P. 10. Veiga G. 7. William Gomes 27. Gul D. 77. Pietuszewski O.	1. Silva R. (G) 72. Quaresma E. 26. Diomande O. 25. Inacio G. 20. Araujo M. 42. Hjulmand M. (C) 5. Morita H. 10. Catamo G. 17. Trincao 7. Quenda G. 97. Suarez L.
Substitutes
14. Claudio Ramos (G) 42. Fofana S. 29. Moffi T. 86. Mora R. 74. Moura F. 11. Pepê 21. Prpic D. 17. Sainz B. 22. Varela A.	23. Braganca D. 6. Debast Z. 14. Kochorashvili G. 31. Luis Guilherme 91. Mangas R. 90. Nel R. 8. Pote 13. Vagiannidis G. 12. Virginia J. (G)
Coaches
Farioli F.	Borges R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Farioli F. 🟨,
11', Inacio G. ↓, Debast Z. ↑,
22', Rosario P. 🟨,
34', Hjulmand M. 🟨,
44', Veiga G. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
51', Hjulmand M. ↓, Braganca D. ↑,
57', Bednarek J. 🟨,
58', Thiago Silva ↓, Varela A. ↑,
71', Pietuszewski O. ↓, Pepê ↑,
71', Gul D. ↓, Moffi T. ↑,
71', Veiga G. ↓, Mora R. ↑,
79', Trincao ↓, Luis Guilherme ↑,
79', Quenda G. ↓, Pote ↑,
79', Araujo M. ↓, Mangas R. ↑,
79', Costa A. ↓, Fofana S. ↑,
83', Silva R. 🟨,
89', Varela A. 🟥,
90+6', Mangas R. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 0-1. Second leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Porto won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Sporting may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Porto might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Porto: Fernandes M. (Injury) Perez N. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Samu (Knee Injury) de Jong L. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Sporting: Ioannidis F. (Knee Injury) Luis Guilherme (Ankle Injury) Santos N. (Injury)

There are questionable in Porto: Zaidu (Injury)

There are questionable in Sporting: Fresneda I. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Porto won 8 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 28:24. (average 1.4:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Porto won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 12:7. (average 1.5:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Porto
Liga Portugal
19.04.26	Porto - Tondela	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
16.04.26	Nottingham Forest - Porto	1:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
12.04.26	Estoril Praia - Porto	1:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
09.04.26	Porto - Nottingham Forest	1:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
04.04.26	Porto - Famalicão	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 WLWTT
- Sporting Lisbon
Liga Portugal
19.04.26	Sporting Lisbon - Benfica	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
15.04.26	Arsenal - Sporting Lisbon	0:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
11.04.26	Estrela da Amadora - Sporting Lisbon	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
07.04.26	Sporting Lisbon - Arsenal	0:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
03.04.26	Sporting Lisbon - Santa Clara	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Taça de Portugal
03.03.26	Sporting Lisbon - Porto	1:0
Liga Portugal
09.02.26	Porto - Sporting Lisbon	1:1
30.08.25	Sporting Lisbon - Porto	1:2
07.02.25	Porto - Sporting Lisbon	1:1
Portuguese League Cup
07.01.25	Sporting Lisbon - Porto	1:0
Liga Portugal
31.08.24	Sporting Lisbon - Porto	2:0
Portuguese Super Cup
03.08.24	Sporting Lisbon - Porto	3:4 ET

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