Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 22

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio da Madeira (Funchal)

Referee: Bessa J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Albania	Tring Sport 4
Belarus	Sport TV
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Denmark	Bold+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 4
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	DAZN Italia
Kuwait	KTV Sport
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	TV Start, TV Start Triumph
Serbia	Arena Premium 5
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
Turkey	Tivibu Spor 3
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
Uruguay	Antel TV
World	Onefootball


	Nacional		Porto

	1	X	2
	7	4.75	1.39	Watch
	7.4	4.7	1.39	Watch
	8.26	4.92	1.4
	7.52	4.85	1.41	Watch
	7	4.5	1.4
	7.75	4.93	1.43	Watch
	8	4.75	1.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.56 ↓ (12.23)	4.77 ↓ (5.54)	1.4 ↑ (1.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional
12.5%

Draw
19.8%

Porto
67.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

7.7%

17.1%

75.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Porto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Porto might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	16.7%	72.2%

Nacional - Porto Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 2 - 11.1%). Porto will win (votes: 13 - 72.2%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Porto: 51.5% – 92.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.25 - Nacional (1.85) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Porto (1.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH +2 - Nacional (1.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Porto will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Nacional (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Porto (votes: 7 - 77.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kaique Pereira (G) 16. Nunez A. 38. Ze Vitor 33. Goncalves C. 5. Jose Gomes 26. Silva J. 6. Matheus Dias 28. Liziero 7. Witi 9. Ramirez J. (C) 11. Paulinho Boia	99. Costa D. (C) 20. Costa A. 5. Bednarek J. 3. Thiago Silva 12. Zaidu 8. Froholdt V. 22. Varela A. 86. Mora R. 11. Pepê 27. Gul D. 77. Pietuszewski O.
Substitutes
8. Baeza M. 10. Daniel Junior 88. Deivison 19. Joao L. 15. Labidi C. 50. Medeiros de Freitas K. V. (G) 99. Pablo Ruan 24. Vallier L. 30. Watts	73. Bras G. 14. Claudio Ramos (G) 42. Fofana S. 29. Moffi T. 21. Prpic D. 13. Rosario P. 17. Sainz B. 10. Veiga G. 7. William Gomes
Coaches
Margarido T.	Farioli F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+1', Goncalves C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Silva J. ↓, Baeza M. ↑,
59', Mora R. ↓, Veiga G. ↑,
59', Pietuszewski O. ↓, Sainz B. ↑,
60', 0 - 1, Bednarek J. ⚽, Veiga G. (A),
71', Witi ↓, Pablo Ruan ↑,
74', Gul D. ↓, Moffi T. ↑,
74', Froholdt V. ↓, Fofana S. ↑,
76', Goncalves C. ↓, Vallier L. ↑,
84', Liziero 🟨,
85', Paulinho Boia ↓, Daniel Junior ↑,
85', Liziero ↓, Labidi C. ↑,
87', Kaique Pereira 🟨,
90', Pepê ↓, William Gomes ↑,
90+3', Vallier L. 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 14 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Porto is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Nacional: Fernandes I. (Injury) Leo Santos (Yellow Cards) Lucas Franca (Inactive) Soares F. (Injury) Ulisses (Injury)

There will not play in Porto: Moura F. (Yellow Cards) Perez N. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Samu (Knee Injury) de Jong L. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Nacional: Aurelio J. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Porto: Fernandes M. (Injury) Kiwior J. (Injury) Perez T. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 16 matches, and goals 11:49. (average 0.6:2.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 9:25. (average 0.8:2.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	FC Porto	8	8	0	0	20:4	16	24
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	7:15	-8	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atletico Nacional
Liga Portugal
08.02.26	Nacional - Casa Pia	0:0 ✺
01.02.26	Sporting Lisbon - Nacional	2:1 ✺
25.01.26	Nacional - Rio Ave	4:0 ✺
17.01.26	Gil Vicente - Nacional	2:1 ✺
11.01.26	Nacional - Santa Clara	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 TLWLT
- FC Porto
Liga Portugal
09.02.26	Porto - Sporting Lisbon	1:1 ✺
02.02.26	Casa Pia - Porto	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
29.01.26	Porto - Glasgow Rangers	3:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
26.01.26	Porto - Gil Vicente	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
22.01.26	Viktoria Plzeň - Porto	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 TLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
13.09.25	Porto - Nacional	1:0
17.05.25	Porto - Nacional	3:0
12.01.25	Nacional - Porto	2:0
18.04.21	Nacional - Porto	0:1
Taça de Portugal
12.01.21	Nacional - Porto	2:4 ET
Liga Portugal
20.12.20	Porto - Nacional	2:0
12.05.19	Nacional - Porto	0:4

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