Match Info

Copa de Primera - Apertura - Round 15

Date: 5 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Martín Torres (Asunción)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Paraguay	Tigo Sports, Tigo Sports+
Usa	Fanatiz


	Sportivo Ameliano		Sportivo Luqueño

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.1	3.4	Watch
	2.15	3.05	3.35	Watch
	2.2	3.06	3.71
	2.15	3.16	3.55	Watch
	2.2	2.88	3.5
	2.17	3.02	3.61	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↓ (2.43)	3.05 ↑ (2.99)	3.52 ↑ (3.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sportivo Ameliano
43%

Draw
30.5%

Sportivo Luqueño
26.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.4%

31.2%

30.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

30.7%

29.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sportivo Ameliano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Sportivo Luqueño has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sportivo Ameliano than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sportivo Luqueño than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	40%	0%

Sportivo Ameliano - Sportivo Luqueño Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Sportivo Ameliano will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Martinez M. (G) 21. Franco F. 26. Gonzalez J. (C) 22. Falabella A. 19. Paredes A. 30. Cabral R. 6. Benitez J. 20. Larralde V. 10. Vera E. 11. Aranda S. 9. Ocampos C.	1. Mongelos F. (G) 5. Villalba A. 6. Wiechniak F. 24. Balbuena A. 34. Martinez Cubilla A. M. 37. Comas L. (C) 23. Maiz A. 18. Quintana S. 10. Diaz S. 30. Franco T. 20. Maggi I.
Substitutes
24. Ayala L. 3. Baez F. 5. Benitez H. 34. Benitez M. 25. Bruno L. 40. Contrera A. 17. Favero C. 36. Leon M. 8. Moreira E. 15. Rodriguez W. 35. Sanchez A. (G) 28. Sanguina J.	16. Benitez A. 14. Benitez F. 3. Brizuela A. 40. Espinola A. (G) 9. Gonzalez W. 29. Lopez O. 15. Maldonado S. 22. Ocampos S. 7. Pereira K. 25. Ramos J. 2. Riveros P. 11. Ruiz O.
Coaches
Nanni R.	Lopez R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
9', Maiz A. 🟨,
22', 0 - 1, Franco T. ⚽, Quintana S. (A),
27', 1 - 1, Cabral R. ⚽, Larralde V. (A),
39', Ocampos C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Aranda S. ↓, Ayala L. ↑,
46', Franco T. ↓, Lopez O. ↑,
46', Lopez O. ↓, Ruiz O. ↑,
48', 2 - 1, Cabral R. ⚽,
59', 2 - 2, Maggi I. (Penalty Awarded),
60', Martinez Cubilla A. M. 🟨,
61', Ocampos C. 🟨,
67', Diaz S. ↓, Gonzalez W. ↑,
67', Maiz A. ↓, Benitez F. ↑,
69', Cabral R. ↓, Sanguina J. ↑,
69', Larralde V. ↓, Moreira E. ↑,
70', Villalba A. ↓, Ocampos S. ↑,
77', Balbuena A. 🟨,
83', Martinez Cubilla A. M. 🟨,
88', Comas L. (Penalty Awarded),
90+3', Vera E. ↓, Leon M. ↑,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 4 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sportivo Ameliano won 2.

Sportivo Ameliano is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Sportivo Luqueño has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Sportivo Ameliano will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Sportivo Ameliano will win today's game, with odds of 2.23.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Sportivo Ameliano won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 19:16. (average 1.2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Sportivo Ameliano won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:11. (average 1.6:1.6).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Ameliano	13	4	6	3	15:15	0	18
9	Sp. Luqueno	13	4	1	8	14:24	-10	13

Last Results with these Odds

Sportivo Ameliano - the odds 2.43 are the expected chance of winning is 38.4%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Sportivo Luqueño - the odds 3.07 are the expected chance of winning is 30.39%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sportivo Ameliano
Paraguayan Primera Division
31.03.26	Sportivo San Lorenzo - Sportivo Ameliano	1:2 ✺
27.03.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Libertad Asuncion	2:0 ✺
23.03.26	Rubio Ñu - Sportivo Ameliano	1:2 ✺
19.03.26	Sportivo Trinidense - Sportivo Ameliano	1:1 ✺
15.03.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Guaraní Asuncion	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 WWWTT
- Sportivo Luqueño
Paraguayan Primera Division
31.03.26	Sportivo Luqueño - Cerro Porteño	2:3 ✺
27.03.26	Nacional Asuncion - Sportivo Luqueño	3:2 ✺
22.03.26	Sportivo Luqueño - 2 de Mayo	0:2 ✺
17.03.26	Olimpia Asuncion - Sportivo Luqueño	1:0 ✺
13.03.26	Sportivo Luqueño - Sportivo San Lorenzo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
06.02.26	Sportivo Luqueño - Sportivo Ameliano	0:1
02.11.25	Sportivo Luqueño - Sportivo Ameliano	0:1
16.08.25	Sportivo Ameliano - Sportivo Luqueño	0:1
02.06.25	Sportivo Luqueño - Sportivo Ameliano	0:0
29.03.25	Sportivo Ameliano - Sportivo Luqueño	2:2
Copa Sudamericana
04.03.25	Sportivo Luqueño - Sportivo Ameliano	2:0
Paraguayan Primera Division
16.11.24	Sportivo Luqueño - Sportivo Ameliano	0:2

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