Match Info

Copa de Primera - Apertura - Round 13

Date: 27 March 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Martín Torres (Asunción)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Sportivo Ameliano		Libertad Asuncion

	1	X	2
	3.1	3	2.15	Watch
	3.15	3.1	2.2	Watch
	3.54	3.22	2.19
	3.42	3.3	2.14	Watch
	3.4	3	2.15
	3.41	3.2	2.16	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.34 ↑ (2.94)	3.14 ↓ (3.38)	2.17 ↓ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sportivo Ameliano
27.7%

Draw
29.5%

Libertad Asuncion
42.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.8%

27.6%

40.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.7%

26.7%

42%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sportivo Ameliano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Libertad Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sportivo Ameliano than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	25%	75%

Sportivo Ameliano - Libertad Asuncion Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Libertad will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Martinez M. (G) 21. Franco F. 26. Gonzalez J. (C) 22. Falabella A. 19. Paredes A. 6. Benitez J. 20. Larralde V. 24. Ayala L. 30. Cabral R. 11. Aranda S. 9. Ocampos C.	12. Morinigo Acosta R. M. (G) 34. Villalba E. 5. Viera D. (C) 4. Gimenez N. 32. Delvalle S. 6. Campuzano A. 27. Molinas A. 28. Fernandez M. 8. Carrizo F. 17. Espinoza Acosta M. D. 11. Aguilar G.
Substitutes
18. Avalos A. 3. Baez F. 5. Benitez H. 40. Contrera A. 17. Favero C. 36. Leon M. 8. Moreira E. 15. Rodriguez W. 35. Sanchez A. (G) 28. Sanguina J. 32. Servian A. 7. Vera F.	39. Buhring J. 26. Caballero H. 38. Diaz E. 31. Fernandez T. 14. Fretes A. 22. Martinez H. 2. Ramirez I. 19. Recalde J. 7. Rojas M. 29. Rojas V. (G) 21. Sanabria L. 24. Villalba R.
Coaches
Nanni R.	Arce F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
3', Gimenez N. 🟨,
23', Falabella A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Molinas A. ↓, Caballero H. ↑,
49', 1 - 0, Falabella A. ⚽, Ocampos C. (A),
62', Fernandez M. ↓, Recalde J. ↑,
62', Carrizo F. ↓, Rojas M. ↑,
62', Ocampos C. ↓, Sanguina J. ↑,
62', Aranda S. ↓, Servian A. ↑,
67', Cabral R. ↓, Moreira E. ↑,
68', Ayala L. ↓, Vera F. ↑,
69', Delvalle S. ↓, Fretes A. ↑,
74', Campuzano A. 🟨,
76', Espinoza Acosta M. D. ↓, Villalba R. ↑,
78', Larralde V. ↓, Contrera A. ↑,
79', Benitez J. 🟨,
84', 🟨,
84', Gimenez N. 🟨,
86', 2 - 0, Contrera A. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 5 and 4)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sportivo Ameliano won 1.

Recent performances by Sportivo Ameliano have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Libertad is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Libertad could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Sportivo Ameliano won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 13:34. (average 0.7:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Sportivo Ameliano won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 5:16. (average 0.6:1.8).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Libertad Asuncion	13	8	2	3	21:14	7	26
7	Ameliano	13	4	6	3	15:15	0	18

Last Results with these Odds

Sportivo Ameliano - the odds 2.94 are the expected chance of winning is 31.77%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sportivo Ameliano
Paraguayan Primera Division
23.03.26	Rubio Ñu - Sportivo Ameliano	1:2 ✺
19.03.26	Sportivo Trinidense - Sportivo Ameliano	1:1 ✺
15.03.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Guaraní Asuncion	0:0 ✺
09.03.26	Deportivo Recoleta - Sportivo Ameliano	1:1 ✺
28.02.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Olimpia Asuncion	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WTTTL
- Libertad Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
21.03.26	Libertad Asuncion - Cerro Porteño	2:3 ✺
18.03.26	Libertad Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	2:1 ✺
13.03.26	2 de Mayo - Libertad Asuncion	0:2 ✺
07.03.26	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Luqueño	1:0 ✺
02.03.26	Sportivo San Lorenzo - Libertad Asuncion	0:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
28.01.26	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	1:0
18.10.25	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	1:2
04.08.25	Sportivo Ameliano - Libertad Asuncion	0:4
27.04.25	Sportivo Ameliano - Libertad Asuncion	0:0
16.02.25	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	2:0
25.10.24	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	1:2
Copa Sudamericana
22.08.24	Sportivo Ameliano - Libertad Asuncion	0:1 penalties

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