Match Info

Copa de Primera - Clausura - Round 12

Date: 25 September 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Feliciano Cáceres (Luque)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Sportivo Luqueño		Guaraní Asuncion

	1	X	2
	3.20	3.20	2.05	Watch
	2.95	3.10	2.15
	3.20	3.30	2.23	Watch
	3.47	3.42	2.18
	2.97	3.33	2.34	Watch
	3.40	3.35	2.10
	3.33	3.33	2.14	Watch
	3.15	3.15	2.07
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.21 ↑ (2.8)	3.27 ↑ (3.15)	2.16 ↓ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sportivo Luqueño
28.8%

Draw
28.3%

Guaraní Asuncion
42.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.7%

29.1%

38.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.6%

29%

38.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sportivo Luqueño has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Guaraní Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sportivo Luqueño than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guaraní Asuncion than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	50%	50%

Sportivo Luqueño - Guaraní Asuncion Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Guaraní will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/E Goals, 1st Half - even (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Campisi N. (G) 22. Ocampos S. 2. Barreto M. 6. Wiechniak F. 23. Cantero A. 10. Bogado G. 14. Benitez F. 8. Maiz A. 37. Comas L. (C) 20. Maggi I. 25. Ramos J.	31. Martinez M. (G) 4. Mendez A. 2. Segovia I. 15. Servin T. 33. Allende L. 36. Martinez L. (C) 26. Fernandez D. 21. Arrua C. 29. Llano J. 14. Rodriguez Echeverria R. O. 11. Garcia J.
Substitutes
28. Balbuena A. 24. Beltran S. 3. Brizuela A. 30. Franco T. 9. Gonzalez W. 15. Maldonado S. 12. Mongelos F. (G) 29. Muro T. 21. Ojeda M. 7. Pereira K. 19. Perez M. 11. Ruiz O.	10. Anasco M. 16. Benitez J. 17. Cespedes V. 38. Coronel P. 40. Fernandez F. 19. Ibarra A. 23. Jacquet M. 34. Maldonado M. 13. Martinez A. (G) 20. Quinonez R. 9. Recalde J. 39. Rolon C.
Coaches
Barrios L.	Arce F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
36', Fernandez D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Rodriguez Echeverria R. O. ↓, Cespedes V. ↑,
56', Maggi I. ↓, Gonzalez W. ↑,
56', Ramos J. ↓, Ruiz O. ↑,
56', Comas L. ↓, Ojeda M. ↑,
61', Garcia J. ↓, Fernandez F. ↑,
61', Fernandez D. ↓, Coronel P. ↑,
61', Arrua C. ↓, Anasco M. ↑,
68', Maiz A. ↓, Muro T. ↑,
85', Llano J. ↓, Recalde J. ↑,
87', Barreto M. 🟨,
87', 0 - 1, Fernandez F. ⚽,
89', Cantero A. ↓, Balbuena A. ↑,
90+2', Anasco M. 🟨,
90+4', Muro T. 🟨,
90+5', Martinez L. 🟨,

Preview

A balanced mid-table encounter with both sides eager to climb into upper positions (ranked 9th and 6th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sportivo Luqueño won 2.

In recent outings, Sportivo Luqueño has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Guaraní shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Sportivo Luqueño has recorded 8 wins, 1 draw, and 11 losses, with a goal aggregate of 27:31 (averaging 1.4:1.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Sportivo Luqueño against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, with 15:15 goals (averaging 1.5:1.5 per game).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Guarani	13	5	6	2	14:10	4	21
9	Sp. Luqueno	13	4	1	8	14:24	-10	13

Last Results with these Odds

Sportivo Luqueño - the odds 2.8 are the expected chance of winning is 32.73%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Guaraní Asuncion - the odds 2.4 are the expected chance of winning is 38.18%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sportivo Luqueño
Paraguayan Primera Division
20.09.26	Sportivo Luqueño - Deportivo Recoleta	1:0 ✺
13.09.26	Olimpia Asuncion - Sportivo Luqueño	3:0 ✺
06.09.26	Sportivo Luqueño - Sportivo Ameliano	1:2 ✺
01.09.26	2 de Mayo - Sportivo Luqueño	2:2 ✺
28.08.26	Sportivo Luqueño - Rubio Ñu	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WLLTW
- Guaraní Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
18.09.26	Sportivo Trinidense - Guaraní Asuncion	0:1 ✺
12.09.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Cerro Porteño	1:1 ✺
07.09.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Deportivo Recoleta	2:0 ✺
02.09.26	Olimpia Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	1:1 ✺
30.08.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 WTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
26.07.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Sportivo Luqueño	1:2
18.04.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Sportivo Luqueño	2:1
23.02.26	Sportivo Luqueño - Guaraní Asuncion	3:2
30.11.25	Guaraní Asuncion - Sportivo Luqueño	2:1
05.09.25	Sportivo Luqueño - Guaraní Asuncion	2:3
24.05.25	Guaraní Asuncion - Sportivo Luqueño	2:1
23.03.25	Sportivo Luqueño - Guaraní Asuncion	0:1

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