Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 8 May 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estadio General Pablo Rojas (Asunción)

Referee: Garay C. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV
Australia	beIN Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Brazil	ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport
Portugal	Sport TV5


	Sportivo Trinidense		Boca Juniors

	1	X	2
	8.5	4.33	1.44	Watch
	8	4.33	1.41
	8	4.5	1.38	Watch
	8.6	4.58	1.41
	8.58	4.58	1.38
	8	4.33	1.35	Watch
	7.95	4.45	1.4	Watch
	7.8	4.1	1.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.18 ↑ (4.78)	4.4 ↑ (3.45)	1.4 ↓ (1.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sportivo Trinidense
11.5%

Draw
21.3%

Boca Juniors
67.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.5%

27%

53.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.2%

26.7%

54.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sportivo Trinidense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sportivo Trinidense's form might have worsened.

Boca Juniors has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Boca Juniors's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sportivo Trinidense than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sportivo Trinidense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Boca Juniors than the current prediction. (-13%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Boca Juniors, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	10%	60%

Sportivo Trinidense - Boca Juniors Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Sportivo Trinidense will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Boca Juniors will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Boca Juniors: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Quinonez W. (G) 21. Canete A. 4. Flores G. 23. Benitez C. 20. Alonso W. 32. Martinez C. 24. De la Cruz L. 28. Riveros M. (C) 10. Delvalle P. 18. Romero F. 30. Andrada B.	1. Romero S. (G) 17. Advincula L. 2. Lema C. 4. Figal J. 23. Blanco L. 8. Fernandez G. 36. Medina C. 21. Fernandez I. 22. Zenon K. 16. Miguel Merentiel 10. Cavani E.
Substitutes
7. Arce P. 22. Borja E. 9. Gimenez O. 6. Jorge J. 8. Mercado Carrizo D. A. 16. Ordonez C. 35. Pereira A. 29. Rayer T. 25. Rodas M. (G) 17. Roman J. 5. Vera J. 3. Villalba D.	45. Benitez M. 12. Brey L. (G) 29. Briasco N. 49. Campuzano J. 43. Delgado M. 40. Di Lollo L. 18. Fabra F. 11. Janson L. 14. Langoni L. 3. Saracchi M. 47. Saralegui J. 41. Zufiaurre I.
Coaches
Arrua J.	Martinez D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
31', Advincula L. 🟨,
32', Romero S. 🟨,
45', 1 - 0, Andrada B. ⚽, Romero F. (A),
45+1', Andrada B. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
51', Andrada B. 🟨,
54', Fernandez G. ↓, Langoni L. ↑,
55', Martinez C. ↓, Roman J. ↑,
62', Delvalle P. ↓, Rayer T. ↑,
70', 1 - 1, Figal J. ⚽, Blanco L. (A),
73', Quinonez W. 🟨,
82', Lema C. ↓, Fabra F. ↑,
86', Riveros M. ↓, Jorge J. ↑,
86', Romero F. ↓, Gimenez O. ↑,
89', Roman J. 🟨,
90', De la Cruz L. 🟨,
90+2', 1 - 2, Cavani E. ⚽,
90+3', Zenon K. ↓, Di Lollo L. ↑,
90+5', Jorge J. 🟨,

Preview

Two teams are playing changeable.

Boca Juniors could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Boca Juniors have a series of guest games.

In this match Boca Juniors is indisputable favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Sportivo Trinidense won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sportivo Trinidense
Paraguayan Primera Division
04.05.24	Tacuary - Sportivo Trinidense	0:0 ✺
26.04.24	Sportivo Trinidense - Sol de América	4:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
23.04.24	Sportivo Trinidense - Nacional Potosí	2:0 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
20.04.24	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Trinidense	2:0 ✺
12.04.24	Sportivo Trinidense - 2 de Mayo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 TWWLL
- Boca Juniors
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
30.04.24	Estudiantes La Plata - Boca Juniors	2:1 penalties ✺
Copa Sudamericana
25.04.24	Fortaleza - Boca Juniors	4:2 ✺
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
21.04.24	River Plate - Boca Juniors	2:3 ✺
16.04.24	Boca Juniors - Godoy Cruz	1:0 ✺
12.04.24	Estudiantes La Plata - Boca Juniors	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
09.04.24	Boca Juniors - Sportivo Trinidense	1:0

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