Match Info

Copa de Primera - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 23 March 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Martín Torres (Asunción)

Referee: Benitez C. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Sportivo Trinidense		Deportivo Recoleta

	1	X	2
	2.15	3	3.1	Watch
	1.98	3.1	3.3
	2.2	3.05	3.2	Watch
	2.32	3.05	3.51
	2.23	3.2	3.31	Watch
	2.25	3	3.1
	2.26	3.03	3.36	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↑ (2.04)	3.06 ↓ (3.3)	3.27 ↓ (3.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sportivo Trinidense
41.8%

Draw
30%

Deportivo Recoleta
28.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.5%

28.1%

26.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.6%

26.9%

25.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sportivo Trinidense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Deportivo Recoleta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sportivo Trinidense than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sportivo Trinidense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Recoleta than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Sportivo Trinidense - Deportivo Recoleta Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Sportivo Trinidense will win (votes: 9 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sportivo Trinidense: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Sportivo Trinidense (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dufour M. (G) 23. Benitez C. 40. Da Silveira A. 30. Valdez B. 14. Mendoza S. 37. Gonzalez L. 21. Viera G. 16. Marcelino J. 29. Rayer T. 7. Camacho N. (C) 31. Morinigo A.	1. Marsengo A. (G) 2. Echeguren Zarza F. A. 5. Marotta N. 23. Nunez J. (C) 18. Rios P. 17. Baez W. 6. Espinola J. 7. Dominguez R. 19. Lopez H. 11. Parzajuk K. 29. Wlk A.
Substitutes
11. Baez Mendoza R. 24. Baruja F. 5. Gauto N. 9. Gimenez O. 20. Gonzalez C. 10. Mana N. 4. Melgarejo D. 34. Roman Torales F. J. 18. Romero F. 2. Ruiz Diaz A. 12. Samudio V. (G) 3. Villalba D.	3. Cardozo L. 27. Dominguez Castillo J. C. 12. Ferreira N. (G) 14. Figueredo C. 38. Franco A. 33. Gonzalez A. 32. Monzon L. 25. Mosquera D. 9. Ortiz R. 22. Pacher F. 31. Schupp M. 24. Vidal T.
Coaches
Arrua J.	Gonzalez J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
20', 1 - 0, Espinola J. (Own goal),
32', 2 - 0, Gonzalez L. ⚽, Rayer T. (A),
37', 2 - 1, Wlk A. ⚽, Rios P. (A),
41', Espinola J. 🟨,
45', Marcelino J. ↓, Gauto N. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Parzajuk K. ↓, Ortiz R. ↑,
46', Baez W. ↓, Gonzalez A. ↑,
48', Nunez J. 🟨,
50', Viera G. 🟨,
60', Nunez J. ↓, Monzon L. ↑,
68', Gonzalez L. ↓, Baruja F. ↑,
68', Camacho N. ↓, Gonzalez C. ↑,
74', 2 - 2, Ortiz R. ⚽,
75', Lopez H. ↓, Pacher F. ↑,
79', Monzon L. 🟨,
80', 🟨,
81', Benitez C. ↓, Ruiz Diaz A. ↑,
81', Rayer T. ↓, Romero F. ↑,
81', 3 - 2, Valdez B. (Penalty Awarded),
89', Dominguez R. ↓, Franco A. ↑,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 10 and 8)

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Sportivo Trinidense might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sportivo Trinidense won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:8. (average 2:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Sportivo Trinidense won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1.5:2).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Sportivo Trinidense	13	7	2	4	23:13	10	23
11	Recoleta	13	2	2	9	14:26	-12	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sportivo Trinidense
Paraguayan Primera Division
19.03.26	Sportivo Trinidense - Sportivo Ameliano	1:1 ✺
14.03.26	Cerro Porteño - Sportivo Trinidense	2:1 ✺
09.03.26	Sportivo Trinidense - Nacional Asuncion	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
04.03.26	Sportivo Trinidense - Olimpia Asuncion	0:1 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
28.02.26	2 de Mayo - Sportivo Trinidense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 TLTLL
- Deportivo Recoleta
Paraguayan Primera Division
18.03.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Deportivo Recoleta	3:1 ✺
14.03.26	Deportivo Recoleta - Olimpia Asuncion	0:1 ✺
09.03.26	Deportivo Recoleta - Sportivo Ameliano	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
05.03.26	Nacional Asuncion - Deportivo Recoleta	1:2 penalties ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
01.03.26	Cerro Porteño - Deportivo Recoleta	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
23.01.26	Deportivo Recoleta - Sportivo Trinidense	1:1
14.09.25	Sportivo Trinidense - Deportivo Recoleta	2:3
04.07.25	Deportivo Recoleta - Sportivo Trinidense	2:4
26.05.25	Deportivo Recoleta - Sportivo Trinidense	1:2
21.03.25	Sportivo Trinidense - Deportivo Recoleta	1:1

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