Match Info

OBOS-ligaen - Round 18

Date: 6 August 2025, Wednesday

Location: Nadderud Stadion (Bekkestua)

Where to Watch on TV:


Norway	TV2 Play


	Stabæk		Aalesunds

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.6	2.25	Watch
	2.95	3.5	2.1
	2.88	3.55	2.28	Watch
	2.92	3.7	2.36
	3.09	3.60	2.16	Watch
	2.9	3.4	2.15
	2.88	3.6	2.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.93 ↑ (2.52)	3.56 ↓ (3.75)	2.23 ↓ (2.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stabæk
31.9%

Draw
26.2%

Aalesunds
41.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.3%

25%

37.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.6%

24.5%

38.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stabæk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Stabæk's form might have worsened.

Aalesunds has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stabæk than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aalesunds than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	41.7%	58.3%

Stabæk - Aalesunds Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Aalesunds will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 41.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aalesunds: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Aalesunds (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Aalesunds (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Stabæk (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Stabæk (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Aalesunds (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Sjoeng M. (G) 13. Hellan M. 15. Veum O. 4. Naess N. 20. Andresen A. 6. Matic A. 27. Danso E. 21. Onsrud K. 8. Lankhof-Dahlby M. 9. Diabate B. 7. Vinge R. E.	1. Grytebust S. (G) 4. Haram S. 5. Kjelsen A. 16. Orsahl J. 7. Nesso K. 11. Johannsson D. 6. Hammer H. 21. Christensen M. 25. Kitolano J. 19. Heiselberg F. 17. Myrlid E.
Substitutes
25. Afrim D. 18. Bawa A. 29. Ekorness K. 10. Geelmuyden H. 41. Lokkevik K. (G) 14. Nielsen M. 17. Olderheim S. 2. Pedersen K. 23. Wendt W.	2. Andresen M. 29. Boe J. 23. Froysa E. 3. Gudmundsson O. 26. Larsen T. (G) 39. Lonebu K. 8. Melland H.
Coaches
Riise B.	Rekdal K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
37', 1 - 0, Diabate B. ⚽, Vinge R. E. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Orsahl J. ↓, Andresen M. ↑,
52', Haram S. ↓, Gudmundsson O. ↑,
52', Johannsson D. ↓, Melland H. ↑,
52', Vinge R. E. ↓, Olderheim S. ↑,
68', Myrlid E. ↓, Lonebu K. ↑,
76', Diabate B. ↓, Afrim D. ↑,
76', Onsrud K. ↓, Bawa A. ↑,
78', Afrim D. 🟨,
79', 1 - 1, Heiselberg F. ⚽, Christensen M. (A),
85', 1 - 2, Hammer H. ⚽, Melland H. (A),
89', Grytebust S. 🟨,
90+1', Kjelsen A. 🟨,
90+2', Lankhof-Dahlby M. 🟨,
90+2', 🟨,
90+3', Hellan M. ↓, Pedersen K. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 14 in the zone OBOS~ligaen (Relegation) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ OBOS~ligaen (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stabæk won 1.

Stabæk has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Aalesunds is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Aalesunds will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Stabæk won 7 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 28:26. (average 1.4:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Stabæk won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:11. (average 1.7:1.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Aalesunds - the odds 2.48 are the expected chance of winning is 37.75%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stabæk Fotball
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
02.08.25	Stabæk - Moss	3:3 ✺
30.07.25	Odd - Stabæk	2:0 ✺
26.07.25	Sogndal - Stabæk	1:1 ✺
28.06.25	Stabæk - Ranheim	1:2 ✺
Norwegian NM Cup
25.06.25	Stabæk - Kristiansund	2:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 TLTLL
- Aalesunds FK
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
02.08.25	Aalesunds - Kongsvinger	3:1 ✺
30.07.25	Lyn - Aalesunds	2:2 ✺
26.07.25	Aalesunds - Moss	2:0 ✺
22.07.25	Egersund - Aalesunds	2:2 ✺
28.06.25	Skeid - Aalesunds	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Norwegian Adeccoligaen
15.06.25	Aalesunds - Stabæk	2:2
09.11.24	Stabæk - Aalesunds	1:4
01.04.24	Aalesunds - Stabæk	1:1
Norwegian Eliteserien
23.09.23	Aalesunds - Stabæk	1:1
13.05.23	Stabæk - Aalesunds	1:0
18.10.20	Stabæk - Aalesunds	4:0
19.07.20	Aalesunds - Stabæk	1:3

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