Match Info

Premiere Division - Round 13

Date: 29 March 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


World	FIFA+


	Stade Malien		Diarra

	1	X	2
	1.82	3.1	4.15	Watch
	1.85	3.09	4.11
	1.82	3.23	4.4	Watch
	1.85	2.9	4.2
	1.73	3.46	4.97	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (2.17)	3.16 ↑ (2.92)	4.37 ↑ (3.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stade Malien
50.2%

Draw
28.9%

Diarra
20.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.4%

31.5%

26.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

32%

25.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stade Malien has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Stade Malien's performance.

Diarra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Diarra might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stade Malien than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Stade Malien that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Diarra than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Stade Malien - Diarra Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 8 and 4).

Stade Malien has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Diarra is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Diarra may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Stade Malien could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Stade Malien won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).

Including home match between the teams, Stade Malien won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Standings

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Stade Malien	26	14	8	4	28:15	13	50
4	Diarra	26	13	5	8	32:24	8	44

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stade Malien
CAF Champions League
22.03.26	Stade Malien - Mamelodi Sundowns	2:0 ✺
13.03.26	Mamelodi Sundowns - Stade Malien	3:0 ✺
Malian Première Division
04.03.26	Binga - Stade Malien	4:0 ✺
01.03.26	Stade Malien - Real Bamako	0:1 ✺
22.02.26	Stade Malien - Bakaridjan	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WLLLT
- FC Diarra
Malian Première Division
18.03.26	Mali Coura - Diarra	0:1 ✺
07.03.26	Diarra - Bougouni	1:0 ✺
28.02.26	Onze Créateurs - Diarra	0:3 ✺
22.02.26	Djoliba - Diarra	0:0 ✺
30.01.26	Diarra - Bougouba	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Malian Première Division
15.05.25	Diarra - Stade Malien	0:3
23.01.25	Stade Malien - Diarra	1:2

Stade Malien - Diarra: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide