Match Info

POLAND: Ekstraklasa - Round 11

Date: 5 October 2024, Saturday

Location: Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu (Mielec)

Referee: Krasny S. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4, Arena Sport 6, Moja TV
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV


	Stal Mielec		Lechia Gdańsk

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.3	3.4	Watch
	2.1	3.4	3.3
	2.1	3.3	3.4	Watch
	2.11	3.41	3.73
	2.09	3.38	3.63	Watch
	2.2	3.3	2.9
	2.11	3.36	3.4	Watch
	2.03	3.35	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↓ (2.29)	3.35 ↑ (3.2)	3.39 ↑ (3.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stal Mielec
44.5%

Draw
27.9%

Lechia Gdańsk
27.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41%

29.3%

29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.4%

29.6%

29.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stal Mielec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Lechia Gdańsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lechia Gdańsk than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45.5%	36.4%	18.2%

Stal Mielec - Lechia Gdańsk Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Stal Mielec will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). Lechia will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 36.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Stal Mielec: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
39. Madrzyk J. (G) 18. Wlazlo P. 21. Matras M. 15. Senger M. 96. Dadok R. 20. Knap K. 6. Guillaumier M. 23. Getinger K. (C) 10. Domanski M. 17. Shkurin I. 44. Krykun S.	1. Weirauch S. (G) 11. Pila D. 44. Pllana B. 3. Olsson E. 23. Kalahur M. 5. Zhelizko I. 79. Sezonienko K. 8. Kapic R. (C) 17. Tsarenko A. 30. Khlan M. 9. Viunnyk B.
Substitutes
9. Assayag R. 40. Bagalianis P. 33. Bukowski A. 8. Hinokio K. 13. Jalocha K. (G) 27. Jaunzems A. 11. Wolkowicz K. 25. Wolsztynski L.	19. Buletsa S. 4. Chindris A. 16. D'Arrigo L. 94. Gueho L. 99. Neugebauer T. 29. Sarnavskyi B. (G) 6. Wendt K.
Coaches
Niedzwiedz J.	Grabowski S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
12', Pllana B. 🟨,
21', Knap K. 🟨,
38', 0 - 1, Pila D. ⚽, Khlan M. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
58', 1 - 1, Wlazlo P. ⚽, Knap K. (A),
66', Knap K. ↓, Hinokio K. ↑,
70', Tsarenko A. ↓, Gueho L. ↑,
71', Guillaumier M. 🟨,
77', Matras M. ↓, Bagalianis P. ↑,
77', Shkurin I. ↓, Assayag R. ↑,
86', Khlan M. ↓, D'Arrigo L. ↑,
90+1', Domanski M. ↓, Wolsztynski L. ↑,
90+2', 2 - 1, Wolsztynski L. ⚽,

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1 and 14).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Stal Mielec won 0.

Stal Mielec is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Lechia is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Lechia could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Stal Mielec won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 7:12 (average 1.2:2).

Including matches at home between the teams Stal Mielec won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:4 (average 1:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stal Mielec
Polish Ekstraklasa
30.09.24	Cracovia - Stal Mielec	1:1 ✺
Polish Cup
25.09.24	Korona Kielce - Stal Mielec	2:1 penalties ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
22.09.24	Stal Mielec - Motor Lublin	1:0 ✺
30.08.24	Stal Mielec - Lech Poznań	0:2 ✺
26.08.24	Korona Kielce - Stal Mielec	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 TLWLL
- Lechia Gdańsk
Polish Ekstraklasa
27.09.24	Lechia Gdańsk - Widzew Łódź	1:1 ✺
Polish Cup
24.09.24	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Lechia Gdańsk	2:1 penalties ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
21.09.24	Jagiellonia Białystok - Lechia Gdańsk	3:2 ✺
14.09.24	Lechia Gdańsk - Radomiak Radom	1:0 ✺
01.09.24	Górnik Zabrze - Lechia Gdańsk	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 TLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
14.05.23	Stal Mielec - Lechia Gdańsk	0:0
30.10.22	Lechia Gdańsk - Stal Mielec	1:0
08.05.22	Lechia Gdańsk - Stal Mielec	3:2
20.11.21	Stal Mielec - Lechia Gdańsk	3:3
27.02.21	Stal Mielec - Lechia Gdańsk	0:1
19.09.20	Lechia Gdańsk - Stal Mielec	4:2

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